Nitish Kumar, the perennial helmsman of Bihar, has made what is likely his last reshuffle before the 2025 assembly elections. The move, which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gobble up all seven new ministerial berths, signals not just the shifting dynamics within the ruling coalition but also the looming reality of Kumar’s diminishing control. While the JD(U), remains a crucial ally in the state’s governance, the BJP has begun asserting itself with an eye to the post-Nitish era.
Kumar’s style of governance has long been to hold the reins of administration firmly in his hands. His ministers have traditionally functioned as executors rather than independent decision-makers, with Kumar himself acting as both mentor and arbiter. Yet, his decision to fill the cabinet to its full capacity, uncharacteristic of his governance model, hints at a tactical move. With the BJP now holding 21 of the 36 ministerial posts, the reshuffle has bolstered its position within the coalition, making it clear that the party is no longer content to play second fiddle.
The appointments highlight BJP’s strategic play in Bihar. Six of the seven new ministers hail from Mithilanchal, where the party has invested heavily, including in the Makhana Board. Sanjay Saraogi’s elevation reinforces support for a separate Mithila state. Caste dynamics remain crucial as two upper-caste ministers secure BJP’s savarna base, while Nishad leader Vijay Kumar Mandal and Vaishya MLA Motilal Prasad expand outreach.
More telling are the promotions of Krishna Kumar Mantoo and Sunil Kumar, both OBCs. Mantoo, a Kurmi, led the ‘Kurmi Ekta Rally,’ echoing Nitish Kumar’s 1994 rise, signaling BJP’s bid to erode his base. Sunil Kumar, a Kushwaha, has been placed in Nalanda, Nitish’s stronghold - moves that hint at BJP’s long-term plan to sideline the JD(U) chief.
Despite forming 36 percent of the state’s population, the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) have only 19 percent representation in the cabinet. Meanwhile, the general category, constituting just over 15 percent of Bihar’s population, holds over 30 percent of the ministerial posts. This imbalance is politically significant. Kumar built his career on the support of the EBCs, Dalits, and non-Yadav OBCs as a counterweight to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s MY (Muslim-Yadav) axis. By deprioritising EBCs in this reshuffle, he risks eroding the very base that propelled him to power.
The BJP assembling its own social coalition, one that combines upper castes with select OBC groups, while leaving the EBCs increasingly unrepresented. This might explain why Kumar has not only expanded the cabinet but has also refrained from aggressively pushing back against BJP’s growing influence. He is caught in a bind, unable to dictate terms within the alliance, yet wary of a complete break that might leave him politically adrift.
Against this backdrop, another subplot is emerging. Kumar’s son, Nishant, has slowly begun making public appearances, granting interviews, and adopting a more politically articulate posture. Once a reclusive figure, Nishant’s growing visibility suggests that Kumar is, at last, preparing for a transition. But will JD(U) cadres, let alone the electorate, accept him as a successor?
The BJP’s moves suggest it is unwilling to wait for an answer. By elevating figures like Mantoo and Sunil Kumar, it is positioning alternative power centers within the Kurmi-Koeri coalition that has long been Kumar’s fiefdom. The BJP’s growing assertiveness suggests that it no longer views Kumar as indispensable. Meanwhile, its willingness to prop up OBC leaders outside JD(U)’s umbrella hints at a long-term strategy to emerge as the dominant force in Bihar politics.
Kumar, for his part, remains a wily tactician. But his room for maneuvering is shrinking. The BJP’s aggressive positioning, the reshaping of the state’s caste coalition and the emergence of potential rivals within his own support base suggest that the Bihar chief minister is facing the greatest challenge of his political career.
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