A Grand Gamble

The Mahagathbandhan gears up to take on Narendra Modi’s juggernaut in Bihar, but unity may prove more elusive than slogans suggest.

Bihar

Ringing in Bihar’s election season, the Mahagathbandhan (or ‘Grand Alliance’) has plunged into a frenzy of activity. Opposition leaders are crisscrossing Patna and beyond, holding strategic meetings to rally the ranks and craft a credible challenge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its regional ally, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United). Yet beneath the surface of photo opportunities and declarations of unity, cracks are already beginning to show, and time may not be on the alliance’s side.

The immediate goal of this week’s gatherings is to steal some of the spotlight from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to visit Madhubani on Thursday. Over two days, the alliance’s key figures, including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, Congress leaders, and leftist parties, will deliberate on a common programme and attempt to project an image of cohesion. It is an image that the Mahagathbandhan desperately needs to project if it hopes to mount a serious challenge.

At the last such meeting, Yadav was appointed coordinator for the alliance’s activities in a symbolic, if not uncontested, endorsement of his leadership. The idea, insiders said, was to ensure that the campaign would not degenerate into a personality clash between Tejashwi and the NDA, but rather be seen as a broad coalition effort. Even so, the underlying tensions were apparent: while RJD veterans speak confidently of Tejashwi as the face of the coalition, Congress leaders are markedly less enthusiastic.

The Congress, never an easy partner, is demanding clarity on seat-sharing at the earliest – a demand echoed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist). In private, Congress functionaries fret that the RJD will attempt to corner the lion’s share of the constituencies by invoking its voter base among Yadavs and other Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

In 2020, Congress contested 70 seats, only to suffer a drubbing, winning just 19. This time, party bosses, including national president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, are pressing for an equal or higher share, emboldened by internal calculations that the BJP’s alliance with Nitish Kumar has weakened its hold on Bihar.

While Kumar, once hailed as ‘Sushasan Babu’ (Mr. Good Governance), is indeed a diminished figure, the BJP’s formidable election machinery remains a daunting force.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan’s internal messaging remains muddled. In public, senior Congress figures in Bihar, like Akhilesh Prasad Singh, declare Tejashwi Yadav the undisputed chief ministerial face. In the same breath, others, like Bihar Congress in-charge Krishna Allavaru, insist that no final decision has been made. The RJD sees Tejashwi’s projection as crucial for energising the youth and OBC vote base that it traditionally banks on.

Adding to the confusion is the lack of a coherent narrative. Leaders like Mukesh Sahni of the Vikassheel Insaan Party and Kunal of the CPI(ML) speak passionately about unemployment, migration and Bihar’s chronic underdevelopment. But these issues risk being drowned out in an election season dominated by caste calculations and political intrigue. Worse, the Opposition’s critique of the NDA government sounds hollow unless accompanied by fresh solutions.

The Mahagathbandhan’s great advantage is its caste arithmetic. With the RJD commanding Yadav-Muslim votes, the Congress tapping into upper-caste minorities, and the Left and regional parties courting Dalits and other OBC groups, the alliance has the theoretical numbers to challenge the NDA. The risk, however, is that the alliance’s heavy dependence on caste groups may alienate younger voters, who yearn for economic opportunity rather than symbolic representation.

If the Mahagathbandhan fails to sort out its leadership questions and seat-sharing headaches before campaigning begins in earnest, it will once again find itself outgunned, outspent and outmanoeuvred.

For now, Bihar’s Grand Alliance is betting that common cause against PM Modi and Nitish Kumar will be enough to keep its squabbling partners tethered together. History, however, suggests otherwise. In Indian politics, unity forged in opposition often shatters under the strain of ambition.