Defying all anti-incumbency predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled off a stunning victory in the Haryana Assembly election while performing creditably in Jammu and Kashmir, which saw the triumph of the National Conference, in alliance with the Congress. Most striking is the transformation in the hitherto strife-torn Jammu and Kashmir, which witnessed its first election since the abrogation of Article 370 by the Narendra Modi-led Central government in 2019.
There, a record voter turnout outpaced even that of Mumbai, and the election was conducted without a single instance of stone-pelting - an almost unthinkable scenario in previous years.
The significance of the peaceful election in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be overstated. Separatist forces, long the dominant voice of discontent in the region, were conspicuously rejected by the electorate. Their defeat signals a broader rejection by the electorate of the old guard’s divisive rhetoric, which often centered on demands for dialogue with Pakistan. Omar Abdullah, leader of the National Conference and victor in the election, notably shifted his message from one of engagement with Pakistan to a call for the restoration of statehood—an evolution in discourse that reflects a desire for democratic self-determination rather than external mediation.
This change is a welcome development, suggesting that even within traditional political circles, the appetite for separatist posturing is waning.
In Haryana, the BJP’s historic hat-trick win underscores a critical lesson for all political parties across India: the futility of excessive reliance on appeasing one single caste to the exclusion of others.
The Congress’s failed strategy of wooing the Jat community at the expense of a broader, more inclusive appeal backfired spectacularly. The BJP, by contrast, managed to unite diverse sections of the electorate, including farmers, soldiers, and athletes - three groups that historically hold sway in Haryana, symbolized by the slogan ‘Kisan, Jawan, Pehalwan’ (Farmer, Soldier, Wrestler).
The anticipated ‘farmer rage’ in the wake of the controversial agricultural reforms did not materialize, debunking predictions that rural discontent would sink the BJP’s chances.
The Congress’s inability to attract Dalit voters, combined with its overdependence on caste appeasement, proved a fatal miscalculation.
Now, one hopes that instead of some introspection, the Congress will not resort to its familiar complaints, such as claims of manipulation with electronic voting machines (EVMs). They should realize that such grievances are likely to ring hollow with an electorate that turned out in large numbers, signalling broad faith in the democratic process.
A particularly shrewd move by the BJP was the decision to grant parole to controversial religious leader Baba Ram Rahim, a figure with a vast following in Haryana. This manoeuvre, while criticized by some, likely played a role in mobilizing a critical bloc of voters in the BJP’s favour. The party’s mastery of local dynamics, along with its ability to connect with key influencers, continues to set it apart from its competitors.
The BJP’s leadership choices also proved crucial. While incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar was no doubt a capable administrator and a dyed-in-wool party loyalist, his perceived arrogance had begun to alienate sections of the electorate and party workers. The BJP’s decision to elevate Nayab Saini, a more down-to-earth and approachable leader, proved to be a masterstroke.
Saini’s grassroots appeal and tireless outreach efforts resonated deeply with voters, providing the BJP with the human touch that Khattar, for all his technocratic prowess, lacked. With virtually every exit poll predicting gloom and doom for the BJP in Haryana, the party demonstrated that leaders like Nayab Saini can win elections by forging strong bonds with the grassroots and offering a message of inclusion rather than division.
The BJP’s electoral success in Haryana holds lessons for other states, particularly Maharashtra. In many ways, Khattar’s case should hold a mirror for Devendra Fadnavis, another highly capable leader but whose style of functioning is perceived to be authoritarian and domineering rather than inclusive.
Yet, unlike Haryana, the BJP thus far has found no Nayab Singh Saini equivalent in Maharashtra - a gap that could pose challenges for the party’s prospects there.
Another crucial takeaway is that the Congress over-focus on Jat appeasement in Haryana ought to make the ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra wary about kowtowing too much to the Maratha community. As the Haryana elections demonstrate, such strategies offer diminishing returns. The BJP’s triumph was built on its ability to appeal to a broad cross-section of voters, grounded in promises of development, stability, and national pride rather than pandering to specific communities.
The results also offer a simple and powerful maxim for future electoral battles of any political party, be it the BJP or the Congress. And that is stay connected, stay grounded, be humble, and be polite. Then you can win any election, no matter what the pundits predict!
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