top of page

By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Tight Races

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers...

Tight Races

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers hint at something approaching change - the very slogan that once carried Mamata Banerjee to power in 2011. After 15 years of Trinamool Congress (TMC) dominance, most exit polls suggest a knife-edge contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Such a result, if borne out, would mark a structural shift. The BJP, once an afterthought in Bengal’s politics, now appears firmly entrenched as the principal challenger. Its steady expansion over the past decade, organisationally and electorally, has culminated in this moment of near parity. Yet the TMC’s resilience is equally striking. Despite anti-incumbency and an aggressive opposition campaign, it retains deep reservoirs of support, particularly in districts that reported exceptionally high turnout. That record turnout has added a further twist by magnifying volatility and making Bengal the most unpredictable theatre in this electoral cycle. If Bengal represents churn, Tamil Nadu offers a subtler story. Most exit polls give the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-Congress alliance a clear edge, pointing to a possible consecutive term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. Yet, beneath this apparent stability lies a potential disruptor in form of actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which introduces a wildcard into a historically bipolar system. While most projections stop short of placing TVK at the top, they consistently suggest it is eating into established vote banks. More ambitious estimates suggest the TVK capable of entirely upending Tamil Nadu’s political order. Further north-east, Assam looks set to defy the broader pattern of flux. Here the story is one of consolidation. Exit polls converge on a decisive victory for the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority. Such an outcome would underline the BJP’s entrenched dominance in the state, built on a combination of organisational depth and effective leadership. For the Congress, the figures are less forgiving as it appears unable to overcome structural weaknesses that have long plagued it in the region. Elsewhere, Kerala and Puducherry hint at further shifts. The CPM-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala may be on its way out, potentially ending the country’s only Left government, while the NDA looks poised to retain Puducherry with ease. The broader lesson is that while national narratives matter, state-specific dynamics like leadership, alliances, caste equations and regional aspirations continue to shape voter behaviour. On May 4, the numbers will either vindicate or embarrass the pollsters. But the signals, however tentative, are already visible.

Bad Roads, Ugly Politics


The pathetic state of roads in Mumbai city as well as its suburbs has made daily commute a dangerous affair. The residents are miffed with the BMC over its lackadaisical attitude. Mumbaikars tweet photos, post videos to grab attention, but everything is in vain. Who cares for the common people. Backbreaking journeys have become part and parcel of life. Political leaders are busy mud-slinging.


This year the monsoon took a break after almost four and half months. During this time some of the roads virtually became non commutable. It may be recalled that the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde first announced to make Mumbai roads pothole free.


Its almost two years now the BMC has concretised only 9 percent of roads it planned to concretise. This decision was taken when it came to light that due to the properties of bitumen in asphalt roads, potholes are a regular occurrence due to contact with water during monsoons.


Hence, to solve the problem of potholes, the corporation has adopted a policy of cement concreting of 6-meter-wide roads in phases. The decision was taken but the dilly-dallying affair made things more difficult.


Mumbai’s traffic does put a lot of strain on roads which is not the case in the other developed countries. Second most important aspect is concretisation of roads is done partly and in phases.


The worst problem which is faced is repeated digging for cables and drainage, which weakens the roads. Above all corruption in BMC makes matters worse as a result everything comes to grinding halt.


According to experts, repairing potholes is a reaction with symptomatic treatment. By and large we are dispensing superficial treatment without addressing the root cause. The long-term solution will be to have roads with no potholes but what we need is the means and technology to achieve this. But for this political will is necessary which we lack on every step.


Mumbaikar’s are convience that corruption in the municipal corporation is the main reason. Contractors have had a monopoly over the last 20 years and this is the reason why reputed companies never come ahead for these projects.


As a result, in the name of attendance and repair, the BMC does shoddy work. Crores are spent but the end result is nothing. The BMC is not paying attention to the crust. If the crust is weak, potholes will see an increase. Without any thought or technical know-how, potholes are filled with cold mix.


This is the reason why the city and suburbs continue to have craters on the roads.


Craters, a serious threat to the safety and security of people. Mumbaikars fade up from their repeated visits to orthopedic surgeons.


They are in a mood to teach a proper lesson to those who were at the helm of the affairs.

Comments

bottom of page