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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Bad Roads, Ugly Politics


The pathetic state of roads in Mumbai city as well as its suburbs has made daily commute a dangerous affair. The residents are miffed with the BMC over its lackadaisical attitude. Mumbaikars tweet photos, post videos to grab attention, but everything is in vain. Who cares for the common people. Backbreaking journeys have become part and parcel of life. Political leaders are busy mud-slinging.


This year the monsoon took a break after almost four and half months. During this time some of the roads virtually became non commutable. It may be recalled that the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde first announced to make Mumbai roads pothole free.


Its almost two years now the BMC has concretised only 9 percent of roads it planned to concretise. This decision was taken when it came to light that due to the properties of bitumen in asphalt roads, potholes are a regular occurrence due to contact with water during monsoons.


Hence, to solve the problem of potholes, the corporation has adopted a policy of cement concreting of 6-meter-wide roads in phases. The decision was taken but the dilly-dallying affair made things more difficult.


Mumbai’s traffic does put a lot of strain on roads which is not the case in the other developed countries. Second most important aspect is concretisation of roads is done partly and in phases.


The worst problem which is faced is repeated digging for cables and drainage, which weakens the roads. Above all corruption in BMC makes matters worse as a result everything comes to grinding halt.


According to experts, repairing potholes is a reaction with symptomatic treatment. By and large we are dispensing superficial treatment without addressing the root cause. The long-term solution will be to have roads with no potholes but what we need is the means and technology to achieve this. But for this political will is necessary which we lack on every step.


Mumbaikar’s are convience that corruption in the municipal corporation is the main reason. Contractors have had a monopoly over the last 20 years and this is the reason why reputed companies never come ahead for these projects.


As a result, in the name of attendance and repair, the BMC does shoddy work. Crores are spent but the end result is nothing. The BMC is not paying attention to the crust. If the crust is weak, potholes will see an increase. Without any thought or technical know-how, potholes are filled with cold mix.


This is the reason why the city and suburbs continue to have craters on the roads.


Craters, a serious threat to the safety and security of people. Mumbaikars fade up from their repeated visits to orthopedic surgeons.


They are in a mood to teach a proper lesson to those who were at the helm of the affairs.

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