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By:

Parashram Patil

14 January 2026 at 8:49:45 pm

Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover

India’s sugar crisis is less about one bad season than about the uneasy trade-offs between food, fuel, water and farm incomes India’s latest sugar-price shock is a reminder that agricultural markets rarely obey the neat logic of supply and demand. Retail sugar prices surged towards Rs. 62–Rs. 67 a kilogram before easing after government intervention. But the episode exposes a deeper problem: India is asking its sugar economy to serve too many objectives at once - support farmers, supply...

Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover

India’s sugar crisis is less about one bad season than about the uneasy trade-offs between food, fuel, water and farm incomes India’s latest sugar-price shock is a reminder that agricultural markets rarely obey the neat logic of supply and demand. Retail sugar prices surged towards Rs. 62–Rs. 67 a kilogram before easing after government intervention. But the episode exposes a deeper problem: India is asking its sugar economy to serve too many objectives at once - support farmers, supply consumers, produce ethanol, conserve water and compete globally. The immediate squeeze was caused by several forces arriving together. Domestic sugar production fell short of initial expectations after erratic monsoons, waterlogging and uneven rainfall affected major cane-growing regions. At the same time, the rapid expansion of the E20 ethanol programme has diverted more cane juice and heavy molasses towards distilleries and away from sugar production. Ethanol is an important component of India’s energy strategy, but every tonne of cane redirected towards fuel has implications for the availability of sweeteners. Inventory Troubles Then came the inventory problem. Closing stocks fell to multi-year lows just as festive and wedding-season demand began to rise. Bulk consumers accumulated supplies, while speculative holding added to the pressure. What began as a supply squeeze therefore became a confidence problem, amplified by expectations of further scarcity. The familiar response is to intervene. Yet abrupt export restrictions, emergency duty-free imports and changes in release quotas may calm prices today while making investment decisions harder tomorrow. The real requirement is not less government, but better government: one that anticipates shortages rather than reacting to them. India needs a real-time sugar intelligence system combining satellite-based weather information, actual mill yields and independently verified inventory data. Policy makers should know much earlier whether the crop is heading for a surplus or deficit. Ethanol procurement prices should also be calibrated against minimum domestic sugar-reserve requirements. Energy security should not accidentally become food-price insecurity. The problem is particularly acute in Maharashtra, one of India’s great sugar-producing states. Its cooperative sugar belts demonstrate both the strengths and limitations of the traditional model. Government intervention has historically shaped cane prices, mill operations and monthly sugar releases. Some regulation remains necessary, especially where millions of farmers depend on the industry. But rigid controls can also discourage efficiency and innovation. Mills need greater operational flexibility, accompanied by transparent safeguards for consumers and growers. Water Woes Water is the harder question. Sugarcane is a thirsty crop, and its intensive cultivation in semi-arid regions creates an uncomfortable contradiction: a crop that provides livelihoods and supports an enormous processing ecosystem can also consume resources that are increasingly scarce. Maharashtra cannot indefinitely treat water-intensive cane cultivation as though water were unlimited. The answer is not to abandon sugarcane, but to grow it more intelligently. Precision irrigation, including micro- and subsurface-drip systems, can reduce wastage and ease pressure on groundwater. Farmers also need greater encouragement to diversify, adopt climate-resilient varieties and use mixed-cropping systems. Lower chemical dependence and better soil management can reduce input costs while making farms more resilient to erratic weather. Environmental management must extend beyond water. Pre-harvest burning releases smoke, toxic gases and fine ash, imposing costs on local air quality. Mechanised green-cane harvesting and better management of crop residue offer a route towards cleaner production without sacrificing agricultural productivity. The larger opportunity lies in moving India’s sugar industry up the value chain. India has the land, processing capacity and cooperative infrastructure to become a global leader. But leadership cannot mean simply producing more bulk sugar and seeking overseas markets whenever domestic stocks permit. Indian mills and farmer organisations should capture more of the value created after the cane leaves the field. Farmer-producer organisations and cooperatives can participate more deeply in ethanol derivatives, cogenerated power, refined and specialty sugars and other downstream products. Traceability and sustainable production could help Indian sugar command better prices in premium international markets. None of this will work without predictable trade policy. Exporters cannot build reliable global businesses if the rules change abruptly whenever domestic prices rise. Nor can farmers make long-term planting decisions when the economics of their crop are repeatedly altered by administrative intervention. India needs a sugar policy that thinks several seasons ahead. For Maharashtra and the rest of the country’s sugar economy, that means better data, smarter water use, predictable trade rules, more diversified farms and greater value addition. (The writer is a member of Maharashtra Agriculture Price Commission. Views personal.)

Caste-based Census Sparks Nationwide Debate

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Caste-based Census

Caste-based identities continue to dominate rural India, directly or indirectly shaping electoral outcomes. Many major elections are influenced by specific caste groups. After the Bihar government released the first phase of its caste-based socio-economic survey, the caste census became a hot topic. The results, backed by evidence, showed improvements in the living standards and social status of marginalised communities, both in cities and villages. With parties like the JDU and NCP backing a caste census, there is growing momentum for the government to conduct one. However, every story has two sides—joy and sorrow. Even Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, raised concerns about the caste census.

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of being “anti-Bahujan.” The clear meaning is that his father and forefather refused to execute a caste-based census, which might have far-reaching effects and even permanently fracture India’s social fabric. This may be negative for caste-based beneficiaries. The last caste census in India was conducted in 1931 by the British government. Those times were different from the present scenario. The data was made public and became the basis for the Mandal Commission Reports and reservation policies for Other Backward Classes. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has clarified that the caste-based population count data will not be used for core politics. But the agenda for politics is always twisted and expanded.

The Central Government also joined the legal debate by filing an affidavit with the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved. India’s partition, rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale. Including caste in official census data could further deepen social divides. This issue has become a political pressure point, with various states pushing the Centre for action. Although the Constitution uses the term “class” instead of “caste,” the Supreme Court has consistently ruled that caste is a relevant, and at times, sole or dominant criterion for defining a backward class.

After the release of caste-based census data in Bihar, discussions around conducting similar censuses have gained momentum in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Karnataka, which has already conducted its own caste census, may release its data soon as well.

Notably, all these states are governed by anti-BJP parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also announced that Congress-ruled states have committed to carrying out caste censuses. Meanwhile, the BJP has remained silent on the matter, creating a significant roadblock.

Caste-based censuses focus on proportional representation in areas like jobs and education, with the argument that this will aid in targeted planning for the disadvantaged. However, the situation remains unclear, much like a foggy winter morning. The BJP’s stance on caste-based censuses and reservations seems different, as they fear the caste-based calculations could fragment their traditional Hindu voter base—an underlying concern for the party.

Professor Sanjay Kumar from The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says, “Let alone the BJP; no party can openly oppose it; it is not free from danger. BJP gets a large number of votes from the OBC community, their population across the country would be around 52%. Another downside is that the caste-based censuses could disrupt the balance of socio-economic zones. Data theft is a common issue in government systems, and people may feel disconnected from their actual rights.

The moot question is that if the financial status of an ST/SC/OBC or Dalit citizen moves up by a few notches, will his social status change automatically? The lifestyle of any class will only change when the income of a particular class is changed. The actual source of income is employment. The reality is that only metro cities have enough place and space for workers. Aside from the GIDC and IT sectors, less than 30% of industries have their own designated vacancy periods. After a decade, the Jamnagar and Rajkot Corporations have opened their doors to newcomers alongside experienced staff. However, age and caste bias often operate behind the scenes. It’s important to recognise that poverty is also widespread among many upper-caste individuals, and their needs cannot be overlooked. In the overall interests of the nation, terms like SC/ST/OBC, Dalits, etc. must be deleted from the nation’s vocabulary. Every citizen should have only one classification, that of being an ‘Indian’, in the spirit of the constitution.

Last year, when the Bihar government decided to conduct a caste survey in the state, the BJP was also Nitish Kumar’s partner in the state government, and it supported it. Political expert and former professor of Tata Institute of Social Science, Pushpendra Kumar, says, “It is not that the BJP does not talk about caste. It tries to reveal the caste of the Prime Minister as well. For caste politics, the BJP also tried hard to raise the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.”

(The writer is a management professional based in Ahmedabad. Views personal.)

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