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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Crude Reality

Since the Iran crisis erupted five months ago and sent tremors through global energy markets, India’s motorists have been spared the full force of the oil shock. Despite a hike, petrol pumps have generally continued to display familiar prices even as crude surged, because state-owned oil companies quietly absorbed the damage. However, with losses now piling up at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), it appears that the bill, which had been...

Crude Reality

Since the Iran crisis erupted five months ago and sent tremors through global energy markets, India’s motorists have been spared the full force of the oil shock. Despite a hike, petrol pumps have generally continued to display familiar prices even as crude surged, because state-owned oil companies quietly absorbed the damage. However, with losses now piling up at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), it appears that the bill, which had been deferred all this while, cannot be avoided. Unless global crude prices retreat sharply, Indian consumers may soon feel the full force of the unabating West Asian crisis. HPCL plunged into a consolidated loss of Rs. 12,265 crore in the June quarter, while BPCL reported a loss of Rs. 3,962 crore - the first quarterly loss for the latter in 15 quarters. The crisis has exposed that India’s fuel-price stability remains heavily dependent on the financial health of state-run oil companies. When global markets turn hostile, these companies are expected to sacrifice margins, protect consumers and absorb geopolitical shocks. This model becomes increasingly fragile when crises become prolonged. Crude oil prices briefly approached $125 a barrel during the height of the West Asia conflict, rising more than 50 percent as fears grew over supply disruptions. Though petrol and diesel prices were eventually raised by more than Rs 7.50 per litre and domestic LPG prices by Rs. 89 per cylinder, the adjustments came too late and were insufficient. Government estimates suggest oil marketing companies have accumulated under-recoveries of around Rs. 75,000 crore during the Iran crisis. HPCL’s refining business in fact had delivered an impressive gross refining margin of $23.80 per barrel in the first quarter, compared with just $3.08 a year earlier. Yet those gains were wiped out by losses in fuel marketing. BPCL faced a similar squeeze. Higher revenues of Rs. 1.59 lakh crore during the quarter could not compensate for suppressed margins and LPG losses. This is the familiar political dilemma of fuel pricing. Governments fear the inflationary consequences of raising prices sharply, especially in an economy where transport costs influence everything from food prices to manufacturing expenses. But delaying adjustments merely shifts it from consumers to public-sector balance sheets. The consequences are already visible. HPCL reported LPG under-recoveries of Rs. 3,607 crore, while BPCL recorded losses of Rs. 3,485 crore on LPG sales. Both companies also face thousands of crores in unpaid subsidy dues. If global crude prices remain elevated, the pressure valve will eventually have to open. Either the government compensates oil companies through larger subsidies by squeezing public finances or consumers face higher fuel prices. India has long benefited from relatively stable domestic fuel prices despite global volatility. But energy markets do not respect political calendars.

Caste-based Census Sparks Nationwide Debate

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Caste-based Census

Caste-based identities continue to dominate rural India, directly or indirectly shaping electoral outcomes. Many major elections are influenced by specific caste groups. After the Bihar government released the first phase of its caste-based socio-economic survey, the caste census became a hot topic. The results, backed by evidence, showed improvements in the living standards and social status of marginalised communities, both in cities and villages. With parties like the JDU and NCP backing a caste census, there is growing momentum for the government to conduct one. However, every story has two sides—joy and sorrow. Even Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, raised concerns about the caste census.

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of being “anti-Bahujan.” The clear meaning is that his father and forefather refused to execute a caste-based census, which might have far-reaching effects and even permanently fracture India’s social fabric. This may be negative for caste-based beneficiaries. The last caste census in India was conducted in 1931 by the British government. Those times were different from the present scenario. The data was made public and became the basis for the Mandal Commission Reports and reservation policies for Other Backward Classes. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has clarified that the caste-based population count data will not be used for core politics. But the agenda for politics is always twisted and expanded.

The Central Government also joined the legal debate by filing an affidavit with the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved. India’s partition, rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale. Including caste in official census data could further deepen social divides. This issue has become a political pressure point, with various states pushing the Centre for action. Although the Constitution uses the term “class” instead of “caste,” the Supreme Court has consistently ruled that caste is a relevant, and at times, sole or dominant criterion for defining a backward class.

After the release of caste-based census data in Bihar, discussions around conducting similar censuses have gained momentum in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Karnataka, which has already conducted its own caste census, may release its data soon as well.

Notably, all these states are governed by anti-BJP parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also announced that Congress-ruled states have committed to carrying out caste censuses. Meanwhile, the BJP has remained silent on the matter, creating a significant roadblock.

Caste-based censuses focus on proportional representation in areas like jobs and education, with the argument that this will aid in targeted planning for the disadvantaged. However, the situation remains unclear, much like a foggy winter morning. The BJP’s stance on caste-based censuses and reservations seems different, as they fear the caste-based calculations could fragment their traditional Hindu voter base—an underlying concern for the party.

Professor Sanjay Kumar from The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says, “Let alone the BJP; no party can openly oppose it; it is not free from danger. BJP gets a large number of votes from the OBC community, their population across the country would be around 52%. Another downside is that the caste-based censuses could disrupt the balance of socio-economic zones. Data theft is a common issue in government systems, and people may feel disconnected from their actual rights.

The moot question is that if the financial status of an ST/SC/OBC or Dalit citizen moves up by a few notches, will his social status change automatically? The lifestyle of any class will only change when the income of a particular class is changed. The actual source of income is employment. The reality is that only metro cities have enough place and space for workers. Aside from the GIDC and IT sectors, less than 30% of industries have their own designated vacancy periods. After a decade, the Jamnagar and Rajkot Corporations have opened their doors to newcomers alongside experienced staff. However, age and caste bias often operate behind the scenes. It’s important to recognise that poverty is also widespread among many upper-caste individuals, and their needs cannot be overlooked. In the overall interests of the nation, terms like SC/ST/OBC, Dalits, etc. must be deleted from the nation’s vocabulary. Every citizen should have only one classification, that of being an ‘Indian’, in the spirit of the constitution.

Last year, when the Bihar government decided to conduct a caste survey in the state, the BJP was also Nitish Kumar’s partner in the state government, and it supported it. Political expert and former professor of Tata Institute of Social Science, Pushpendra Kumar, says, “It is not that the BJP does not talk about caste. It tries to reveal the caste of the Prime Minister as well. For caste politics, the BJP also tried hard to raise the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.”

(The writer is a management professional based in Ahmedabad. Views personal.)

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