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By:

Ruddhi Phadke

22 September 2024 at 10:17:54 am

Oil, Missiles and the Gate of Tears

As the Houthis target Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, the widening West Asia conflict raises fresh concerns over global oil supplies and India’s economy. As President Donald Trump struggles to extricate the United States from the increasingly intractable conflict with Iran, the Middle East has become more combustible still. The Houthis, the Yemeni militia once regarded as a peripheral actor in the region’s wars, have opened a new front with remarkable audacity. Over the weekend, they...

Oil, Missiles and the Gate of Tears

As the Houthis target Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, the widening West Asia conflict raises fresh concerns over global oil supplies and India’s economy. As President Donald Trump struggles to extricate the United States from the increasingly intractable conflict with Iran, the Middle East has become more combustible still. The Houthis, the Yemeni militia once regarded as a peripheral actor in the region’s wars, have opened a new front with remarkable audacity. Over the weekend, they launched coordinated strikes involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, hitting sensitive Aramco facilities in Jazan and Yanbu. The attacks were not merely another salvo in Yemen’s long war but a warning that the conflict is spilling across borders and drawing ever more of the Gulf into its vortex. This is not the first time the Houthis have targeted Saudi Arabia since the Iran conflict erupted. Riyadh and the Yemeni militia have traded blows before, in a rivalry that stretches back more than a decade. Although a fragile truce had tempered hostilities, the recent escalation has shattered any illusion of stability. Last week, the Houthis effectively closed the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi shipping, bringing a substantial portion of the kingdom's oil exports to an abrupt halt. The narrow maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden is one of the world's most vital trade arteries, carrying nearly 10 percent of global seaborne oil. For Saudi Arabia, it is an economic lifeline, with an estimated three-quarters of its oil exports passing through the strait. By disrupting this route and now striking Aramco's production facilities in Jazan and Yanbu, the Houthis are attacking not only the kingdom’s present oil exports but also its future production capacity. These strategic blows are being delivered with relatively inexpensive ballistic missiles and drones, allowing a lightly equipped militia to inflict outsized economic and geopolitical costs. The anti-ship cruise missile – Al-Mandab, named after the strait itself, can strike targets up to 300 km away. This radar guided missile costs a few hundred thousand dollars. Cheap Weapons Another example is the QUDS - a subsonic cruise missile gifted by Iran. It can travel nearly 150 km and costs just 50,000 dollars to make the missile. Houthis also rely on cheap drones like the SHAHED series. Some of the cheaper variants like SHAHED 131 cost just 10,000 dollars. Experts highlight that the Houthis are hurting the Saudi economy with weapons that cost less than what an average American makes in a year. The Yemeni group says that they are in no mood to stop the attacks. This leaves us with two big questions: Where are Trump’s guarantees and where is Pakistan? The United States has always projected itself as a net security provider, a pitch that was sold to Riyadh for decades. Today, when Saudi Arabia is battling Houthi attacks, the United States is missing. Islamabad is missing in action too. Islamabad has a mutual security pact with Riyadh. An attack on one is to be treated as an attack on the other as per the agreement. When it comes to billion-dollar loans or weapons, Pakistan is usually the first in line. When it comes about keeping promises, Islamabad is nowhere to be seen. Coming back to the Bab-el-Mandeb (which literally translates as the “Gate of Tears”), the name now carries an ominous resonance, especially if that gateway remains closed. For Saudi Arabia, the strait is an economic artery. The kingdom’s prosperity is built on the uninterrupted flow of oil exports, and any disruption to this vital route threatens its economic foundations. Today, Iran has tightened its grip around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis are turning the Bab-el-Mandeb into another pressure point. The conflict is no longer confined to Iran’s borders or its confrontation with the United States. It has spilled into the Red Sea, into the arteries of global commerce, and into the heart of the world’s largest oil-producing region. Impact on India Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, particularly targeting Aramco oil facilities, could have significant economic and strategic implications for India, one of the world’s largest crude oil importers. India imports nearly 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, with Saudi Arabia remaining among its top suppliers. Any disruption to Aramco’s production or export infrastructure could tighten global oil supplies, leading to a spike in international crude prices. Higher oil prices would increase India’s import bill, widen the current account deficit, and put pressure on the rupee. Costlier crude could also fuel inflation by raising transportation, manufacturing and energy costs, complicating the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to manage price stability. The attacks also heighten concerns over the security of energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Gulf. If hostilities spill over to the Red Sea or threaten maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, shipping insurance premiums and freight costs could rise. This would affect not only crude oil imports but also India’s trade with Europe and West Asia. India also has strategic interests in the Gulf due to the presence of over nine million Indian expatriates in the region, many of whom live and work in Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries. Escalating conflict could pose risks to their safety and disrupt remittance flows. While India has diversified its crude sourcing in recent years by increasing imports from countries such as Russia, Iraq and the UAE, prolonged instability in West Asia would continue to expose the Indian economy to energy price volatility. The situation underscores the importance of expanding strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying energy imports, and accelerating the transition towards renewable energy to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Caste-based Census Sparks Nationwide Debate

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Caste-based Census

Caste-based identities continue to dominate rural India, directly or indirectly shaping electoral outcomes. Many major elections are influenced by specific caste groups. After the Bihar government released the first phase of its caste-based socio-economic survey, the caste census became a hot topic. The results, backed by evidence, showed improvements in the living standards and social status of marginalised communities, both in cities and villages. With parties like the JDU and NCP backing a caste census, there is growing momentum for the government to conduct one. However, every story has two sides—joy and sorrow. Even Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, raised concerns about the caste census.

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of being “anti-Bahujan.” The clear meaning is that his father and forefather refused to execute a caste-based census, which might have far-reaching effects and even permanently fracture India’s social fabric. This may be negative for caste-based beneficiaries. The last caste census in India was conducted in 1931 by the British government. Those times were different from the present scenario. The data was made public and became the basis for the Mandal Commission Reports and reservation policies for Other Backward Classes. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has clarified that the caste-based population count data will not be used for core politics. But the agenda for politics is always twisted and expanded.

The Central Government also joined the legal debate by filing an affidavit with the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved. India’s partition, rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale. Including caste in official census data could further deepen social divides. This issue has become a political pressure point, with various states pushing the Centre for action. Although the Constitution uses the term “class” instead of “caste,” the Supreme Court has consistently ruled that caste is a relevant, and at times, sole or dominant criterion for defining a backward class.

After the release of caste-based census data in Bihar, discussions around conducting similar censuses have gained momentum in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Karnataka, which has already conducted its own caste census, may release its data soon as well.

Notably, all these states are governed by anti-BJP parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also announced that Congress-ruled states have committed to carrying out caste censuses. Meanwhile, the BJP has remained silent on the matter, creating a significant roadblock.

Caste-based censuses focus on proportional representation in areas like jobs and education, with the argument that this will aid in targeted planning for the disadvantaged. However, the situation remains unclear, much like a foggy winter morning. The BJP’s stance on caste-based censuses and reservations seems different, as they fear the caste-based calculations could fragment their traditional Hindu voter base—an underlying concern for the party.

Professor Sanjay Kumar from The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says, “Let alone the BJP; no party can openly oppose it; it is not free from danger. BJP gets a large number of votes from the OBC community, their population across the country would be around 52%. Another downside is that the caste-based censuses could disrupt the balance of socio-economic zones. Data theft is a common issue in government systems, and people may feel disconnected from their actual rights.

The moot question is that if the financial status of an ST/SC/OBC or Dalit citizen moves up by a few notches, will his social status change automatically? The lifestyle of any class will only change when the income of a particular class is changed. The actual source of income is employment. The reality is that only metro cities have enough place and space for workers. Aside from the GIDC and IT sectors, less than 30% of industries have their own designated vacancy periods. After a decade, the Jamnagar and Rajkot Corporations have opened their doors to newcomers alongside experienced staff. However, age and caste bias often operate behind the scenes. It’s important to recognise that poverty is also widespread among many upper-caste individuals, and their needs cannot be overlooked. In the overall interests of the nation, terms like SC/ST/OBC, Dalits, etc. must be deleted from the nation’s vocabulary. Every citizen should have only one classification, that of being an ‘Indian’, in the spirit of the constitution.

Last year, when the Bihar government decided to conduct a caste survey in the state, the BJP was also Nitish Kumar’s partner in the state government, and it supported it. Political expert and former professor of Tata Institute of Social Science, Pushpendra Kumar, says, “It is not that the BJP does not talk about caste. It tries to reveal the caste of the Prime Minister as well. For caste politics, the BJP also tried hard to raise the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.”

(The writer is a management professional based in Ahmedabad. Views personal.)

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