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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Resorts, Rallies, and Rebellion

Inside Mahayuti’s high-stakes firefighting for legislative council polls Mumbai: The public posture of ruling Mahayuti alliance radiates supreme confidence. Leaders from the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and NCP led by Sunetra Pawar are predicting a clean sweep. Voting is scheduled for Thursday. Yet, beneath this calm exterior lies intense backstage panic. None of the alliance constituents are leaving any loose ends. No leader wants to take any risks, as everybody is trying to ensure...

Resorts, Rallies, and Rebellion

Inside Mahayuti’s high-stakes firefighting for legislative council polls Mumbai: The public posture of ruling Mahayuti alliance radiates supreme confidence. Leaders from the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and NCP led by Sunetra Pawar are predicting a clean sweep. Voting is scheduled for Thursday. Yet, beneath this calm exterior lies intense backstage panic. None of the alliance constituents are leaving any loose ends. No leader wants to take any risks, as everybody is trying to ensure their real value is recognized and past political scores are waiting to be settled. This volatile environment has triggered widespread fears of cross-voting. It has given a massive boost to resort politics across the state. The upcoming contest spans 17 local self-government constituencies. The unique composition of this electorate makes the election highly unpredictable. The voters are not regular citizens. They are elected corporators, municipal councillors, and Zilla Parishad members. This setup makes the election hyper-localized. It offers a perfect shadow arena for local politicians to exercise leverage. Consequently, ruling alliance leaders are taking extraordinary measures to protect their flocks. Every single vote is being heavily guarded. Poaching Game Political parties have quickly locked down their voters to prevent poaching. Sources reveal that local body members from Sangli, Nanded, and Nagpur are already gone. They have been taken on special tours to Goa under tight supervision. Meanwhile, corporators from Nashik have been moved elsewhere. They are currently staying at a secluded luxury resort near Bhiwandi. These defensive tactics show how deeply the party bosses distrust their own members. Political managers are monitoring every voter’s movement around the clock. The ground reality across key cities highlights this deep regional friction. In Nagpur, the stakes are incredibly high. This by-election became necessary after state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule vacated the seat. He did so after winning his election to the state assembly. The BJP cannot afford a defeat in its primary ideological stronghold. Similarly, the Wardha-Chandrapur-Gadchiroli constituency presents a tough challenge. The BJP has fielded Arun Lakhani for this crucial seat. However, managing the intricate web of local body representatives in Chandrapur is testing the party machinery. Shifting Loyalties Other regions show similar vulnerability. In seats like Jalgaon, Nanded, and Sangli, traditional political loyalties are shifting. Compounding these internal threats is the BJP’s aggressive campaign strategy. The party chose to treat this council election as an opportunity. They wanted to expand their standalone organisational footprint across the state. Instead of relying on traditional top-down bulk voting through alliance bosses, the BJP targeted the electorate directly. The party organised an array of localised rallies, town hall meetings, and gatherings of the electorate. Some of these events registered an excellent response. However, this unilateral approach deeply irritated their alliance partners and many of these events saw dismal attendance by BJP’s alliance partners. Apart from this general apathy, the real challenge was that of open rebellion within the ruling alliance’s internal ranks. Disgruntled local leaders, disappointed ticket seekers, and ignored district presidents had expressed loud resentment. Even sitting MLAs and MLCs have signaled their displeasure over candidate choices. State BJP leaders had to spend considerable energy for the firefighting and ensuring that rebellion is contained. Yet many leaders are still unhappy with current regional power equations. Frantic Firefighting Fearing massive internal sabotage, the BJP top brass has launched a frantic firefighting operation. Senior leaders have been entrusted with strict responsibilities to oversee specific seats. They are managing all local arrangements personally. Top party managers are literally crisscrossing the state using helicopters and chartered flights. They are conducting last-minute pacification drives in every sensitive district. These leaders are holding urgent, closed-door meetings to placate angry regional chieftains. They are working hard to neutralize rebel factions. No disgruntled leader is being left unattended before Thursday morning. Promises of future political rewards are being distributed generously. Leaders are promising state-run board appointments and fresh development funds to buy peace. The frantic resort lockdowns and endless late-night negotiations reveal the true story of this election. The Mahayuti may still win a majority of these 17 seats through sheer resource dominance. However, the visible fractures in cities like Nashik, Sangli, Chandrapur, and Jalgaon reveal a fragile coalition. This council election has ceased to be a routine legislative exercise. It has mutated into a brutal internal audit of the ruling alliance’s unity. The final results will offer a definitive look at who holds the real power.

Caste-based Census Sparks Nationwide Debate

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Caste-based Census

Caste-based identities continue to dominate rural India, directly or indirectly shaping electoral outcomes. Many major elections are influenced by specific caste groups. After the Bihar government released the first phase of its caste-based socio-economic survey, the caste census became a hot topic. The results, backed by evidence, showed improvements in the living standards and social status of marginalised communities, both in cities and villages. With parties like the JDU and NCP backing a caste census, there is growing momentum for the government to conduct one. However, every story has two sides—joy and sorrow. Even Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, raised concerns about the caste census.

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of being “anti-Bahujan.” The clear meaning is that his father and forefather refused to execute a caste-based census, which might have far-reaching effects and even permanently fracture India’s social fabric. This may be negative for caste-based beneficiaries. The last caste census in India was conducted in 1931 by the British government. Those times were different from the present scenario. The data was made public and became the basis for the Mandal Commission Reports and reservation policies for Other Backward Classes. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has clarified that the caste-based population count data will not be used for core politics. But the agenda for politics is always twisted and expanded.

The Central Government also joined the legal debate by filing an affidavit with the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved. India’s partition, rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale. Including caste in official census data could further deepen social divides. This issue has become a political pressure point, with various states pushing the Centre for action. Although the Constitution uses the term “class” instead of “caste,” the Supreme Court has consistently ruled that caste is a relevant, and at times, sole or dominant criterion for defining a backward class.

After the release of caste-based census data in Bihar, discussions around conducting similar censuses have gained momentum in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Karnataka, which has already conducted its own caste census, may release its data soon as well.

Notably, all these states are governed by anti-BJP parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also announced that Congress-ruled states have committed to carrying out caste censuses. Meanwhile, the BJP has remained silent on the matter, creating a significant roadblock.

Caste-based censuses focus on proportional representation in areas like jobs and education, with the argument that this will aid in targeted planning for the disadvantaged. However, the situation remains unclear, much like a foggy winter morning. The BJP’s stance on caste-based censuses and reservations seems different, as they fear the caste-based calculations could fragment their traditional Hindu voter base—an underlying concern for the party.

Professor Sanjay Kumar from The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says, “Let alone the BJP; no party can openly oppose it; it is not free from danger. BJP gets a large number of votes from the OBC community, their population across the country would be around 52%. Another downside is that the caste-based censuses could disrupt the balance of socio-economic zones. Data theft is a common issue in government systems, and people may feel disconnected from their actual rights.

The moot question is that if the financial status of an ST/SC/OBC or Dalit citizen moves up by a few notches, will his social status change automatically? The lifestyle of any class will only change when the income of a particular class is changed. The actual source of income is employment. The reality is that only metro cities have enough place and space for workers. Aside from the GIDC and IT sectors, less than 30% of industries have their own designated vacancy periods. After a decade, the Jamnagar and Rajkot Corporations have opened their doors to newcomers alongside experienced staff. However, age and caste bias often operate behind the scenes. It’s important to recognise that poverty is also widespread among many upper-caste individuals, and their needs cannot be overlooked. In the overall interests of the nation, terms like SC/ST/OBC, Dalits, etc. must be deleted from the nation’s vocabulary. Every citizen should have only one classification, that of being an ‘Indian’, in the spirit of the constitution.

Last year, when the Bihar government decided to conduct a caste survey in the state, the BJP was also Nitish Kumar’s partner in the state government, and it supported it. Political expert and former professor of Tata Institute of Social Science, Pushpendra Kumar, says, “It is not that the BJP does not talk about caste. It tries to reveal the caste of the Prime Minister as well. For caste politics, the BJP also tried hard to raise the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.”

(The writer is a management professional based in Ahmedabad. Views personal.)

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