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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 3:50:16 pm

Himalayan Warning

The Himalayas are becoming a graveyard of warnings ignored. Nepal’s latest flash floods have killed at least 165 people and left more than 800 missing, including hundreds of Indian tourists. What makes the catastrophe especially disturbing is that the torrent was not an entirely unforeseeable act of nature. The flash floods that tore through the Bhotekoshi River corridor were initially attributed to a 4.4-magnitude earthquake. The US Geological Survey has since concluded that the seismic...

Himalayan Warning

The Himalayas are becoming a graveyard of warnings ignored. Nepal’s latest flash floods have killed at least 165 people and left more than 800 missing, including hundreds of Indian tourists. What makes the catastrophe especially disturbing is that the torrent was not an entirely unforeseeable act of nature. The flash floods that tore through the Bhotekoshi River corridor were initially attributed to a 4.4-magnitude earthquake. The US Geological Survey has since concluded that the seismic signal was generated by a glacial collapse and debris flow. An avalanche blocked the Lhende tributary before the resulting torrent burst downstream, striking Timure and the Rasuwagadhi area near Nepal’s border with China with devastating force. The Himalayan disaster landscape is changing, while the systems meant to anticipate it remain dangerously behind. The Himalayas are not merely experiencing more disasters; the disasters themselves are becoming harder to predict because several hazards can cascade into one another like an ice collapse, landslides, temporary river blockages, sudden releases of water and torrents carrying enormous quantities of rock and debris. Nepal has seen this pattern before. The 2021 Melamchi floods demonstrated how glacial deposits, landslide dams, extreme rainfall and rapid snowmelt can combine to produce destruction vastly greater than any single trigger might suggest. Research into the disaster found that the flood generated a cascading process of erosion and landsliding that dramatically reshaped the valley. There is therefore something profoundly unsettling about the familiar language of surprise that follows every Himalayan disaster. Nepal’s geography has always made it vulnerable, but climate change is complicating that vulnerability. The World Bank has identified glacial lake outburst floods, floods and water-related hazards intensified by torrential rain and snowmelt among the country's major climate risks. For India, the tragedy is particularly sobering. The missing include large numbers of Indian nationals, including pilgrims and tourists from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and several other states travelling through one of the region’s most difficult and strategically sensitive corridors. This should prompt more than condolences and rescue operations. India and Nepal need a much more serious Himalayan disaster architecture of shared monitoring of glaciers and unstable slopes, real-time river and debris-flow warnings, better communications in remote valleys, clearly marked evacuation routes and regular coordination between disaster agencies, border authorities and tourism operators. The Himalayas do not respect political boundaries. A warning missed in Tibet or Nepal can become a humanitarian emergency downstream. India cannot afford to treat Himalayan risk as Nepal’s problem until the flood reaches its own territory. While the immediate priority is rescue, once the survivors are accounted for, the harder question that must be asked is how many more warnings does the Himalayas have to deliver before South Asia treats them as warnings rather than surprises?

Caste-based Census Sparks Nationwide Debate

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Caste-based Census

Caste-based identities continue to dominate rural India, directly or indirectly shaping electoral outcomes. Many major elections are influenced by specific caste groups. After the Bihar government released the first phase of its caste-based socio-economic survey, the caste census became a hot topic. The results, backed by evidence, showed improvements in the living standards and social status of marginalised communities, both in cities and villages. With parties like the JDU and NCP backing a caste census, there is growing momentum for the government to conduct one. However, every story has two sides—joy and sorrow. Even Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, raised concerns about the caste census.

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of being “anti-Bahujan.” The clear meaning is that his father and forefather refused to execute a caste-based census, which might have far-reaching effects and even permanently fracture India’s social fabric. This may be negative for caste-based beneficiaries. The last caste census in India was conducted in 1931 by the British government. Those times were different from the present scenario. The data was made public and became the basis for the Mandal Commission Reports and reservation policies for Other Backward Classes. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has clarified that the caste-based population count data will not be used for core politics. But the agenda for politics is always twisted and expanded.

The Central Government also joined the legal debate by filing an affidavit with the Supreme Court, leaving the matter unresolved. India’s partition, rooted in the divide-and-rule strategy, is frequently cited as a cautionary tale. Including caste in official census data could further deepen social divides. This issue has become a political pressure point, with various states pushing the Centre for action. Although the Constitution uses the term “class” instead of “caste,” the Supreme Court has consistently ruled that caste is a relevant, and at times, sole or dominant criterion for defining a backward class.

After the release of caste-based census data in Bihar, discussions around conducting similar censuses have gained momentum in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Karnataka, which has already conducted its own caste census, may release its data soon as well.

Notably, all these states are governed by anti-BJP parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also announced that Congress-ruled states have committed to carrying out caste censuses. Meanwhile, the BJP has remained silent on the matter, creating a significant roadblock.

Caste-based censuses focus on proportional representation in areas like jobs and education, with the argument that this will aid in targeted planning for the disadvantaged. However, the situation remains unclear, much like a foggy winter morning. The BJP’s stance on caste-based censuses and reservations seems different, as they fear the caste-based calculations could fragment their traditional Hindu voter base—an underlying concern for the party.

Professor Sanjay Kumar from The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says, “Let alone the BJP; no party can openly oppose it; it is not free from danger. BJP gets a large number of votes from the OBC community, their population across the country would be around 52%. Another downside is that the caste-based censuses could disrupt the balance of socio-economic zones. Data theft is a common issue in government systems, and people may feel disconnected from their actual rights.

The moot question is that if the financial status of an ST/SC/OBC or Dalit citizen moves up by a few notches, will his social status change automatically? The lifestyle of any class will only change when the income of a particular class is changed. The actual source of income is employment. The reality is that only metro cities have enough place and space for workers. Aside from the GIDC and IT sectors, less than 30% of industries have their own designated vacancy periods. After a decade, the Jamnagar and Rajkot Corporations have opened their doors to newcomers alongside experienced staff. However, age and caste bias often operate behind the scenes. It’s important to recognise that poverty is also widespread among many upper-caste individuals, and their needs cannot be overlooked. In the overall interests of the nation, terms like SC/ST/OBC, Dalits, etc. must be deleted from the nation’s vocabulary. Every citizen should have only one classification, that of being an ‘Indian’, in the spirit of the constitution.

Last year, when the Bihar government decided to conduct a caste survey in the state, the BJP was also Nitish Kumar’s partner in the state government, and it supported it. Political expert and former professor of Tata Institute of Social Science, Pushpendra Kumar, says, “It is not that the BJP does not talk about caste. It tries to reveal the caste of the Prime Minister as well. For caste politics, the BJP also tried hard to raise the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.”

(The writer is a management professional based in Ahmedabad. Views personal.)

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