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23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Fortress

Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor’s emphatic victory in the Bankipur by-poll, that ended three decades of uninterrupted BJP dominance, is a classic instance when even the safest urban strongholds of a comfortably ensconced ruling party are no longer immune to local discontent and shifting social coalitions. That said, the parallels between Bankipur and the 2023 Kasba Peth bypoll are too striking to dismiss as isolated by-election quirks. In the latter case, the BJP had similarly conceded a...

Fractured Fortress

Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor’s emphatic victory in the Bankipur by-poll, that ended three decades of uninterrupted BJP dominance, is a classic instance when even the safest urban strongholds of a comfortably ensconced ruling party are no longer immune to local discontent and shifting social coalitions. That said, the parallels between Bankipur and the 2023 Kasba Peth bypoll are too striking to dismiss as isolated by-election quirks. In the latter case, the BJP had similarly conceded a seemingly surefire seat that had remained in its grasp since 1995. Both defeats followed the departure of long-serving legislators. Both occurred in constituencies where the BJP began as the overwhelming favourite. By-elections are notoriously unreliable predictors of general elections as their turnout is generally lower, and local grievances loom larger while voters often feel freer to register dissatisfaction without changing governments. Yet they remain valuable political barometers because they reveal the health of party organisations beneath the sheen of national leadership. Bankipur is especially significant because like Kasba Peth in Pune, it represented the party’s urban, upper-caste heartland in Bihar. Prashant Kishor’s victory, therefore, carries symbolism beyond its numerical margin. Making his electoral debut, he converted what had long been considered an impregnable BJP constituency into the Jan Suraaj Party’s most consequential victory. The explanation lies less in ideological realignment than in coalition management. The BJP has, in recent years, sought to broaden its social base by expanding its appeal among the lower caste, economically disadvantaged caste groups. That strategy has served it well nationally, particularly in states where expanding beyond traditional support was essential for electoral growth. Yet every expansion creates new anxieties among an established base. Just as in the Kasba bypoll, the Bankipur result suggests that sections of upper-caste voters, long regarded as among the BJP’s most dependable supporters, felt increasingly alienated. Their perception was that the BJP’s electoral calculations had shifted decisively towards cultivating newer caste constituencies. Kasba Peth offered an earlier version of the same lesson. The BJP entered the contest expecting organisational strength and historical advantage to outweigh local dissatisfaction. Instead, the opposition successfully transformed the by-election into a referendum on complacency, exploiting organisational fatigue and local resentment. Bankipur appears to follow a similar script. Candidate selection became contentious, local anti-incumbency lingered beneath the surface, and the opposition presented itself as the vehicle for voters seeking to send a message rather than engineer a regime change. While this, in no way, implies an imminent collapse of the BJP’s broader electoral dominance, dominant parties ignore by-election warnings at their peril. Safe seats are valuable not because they guarantee victories, but because they reveal the strength of a party’s deepest political relationships.

Clever seat selection helped BJP to secure historic win

The party won 65 seats against Congress, 37 against NCP (SP) and 29 against Shiv Sena (UBT)

Clever seat selection

Mumbai: The BJP’s strategic seat sharing with the allies has proved beneficial for the party. An analysis of the Assembly election results show that the BJP has scored over its main rival, the Congress, in a big way because of the direct fights.


The analysis shows that BJP defeated all three constituents of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) – in the direct fights. This is attributed as one of the reasons for the BJP’s historic poll success.


The BJP contested 147 out of 288 seats. In 76 constituencies, it faced Congress. BJP secured victory in 65 seats and lost only 11 seats, making it a whopping 86 per cent of the total direct fights. This was followed by an even stronger performance against NCP (SP). Of the total 39 fights with Sharad Pawar’s party, BJP captured 37 seats making it 95 per cent of the total fights with NCP (SP). BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT) were head-to-head in 32 constituencies, of which BJP emerged victorious in 29 seats, making this 91 per cent of the total direct contests.


According to a BJP strategist the party had bargained hard with its allies, Shiv Sena and NCP to get the desired constituencies in the seat sharing formula. “We had studied to potential candidates of the MVA. That helped us in choosing the seats where we can register comfortable victories,” the strategist said.


BJP spokesperson Niranjan Shetty attributed the success to all the party workers who worked hard to boost development, infrastructure in the state. He gave credit to Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for his contribution to the party’s success.


Shetty pointed out that in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray had stalled all the “novel” and “legendary” projects that Fadnavis had started when he had taken over as CM, making it very easy for the people of Maharashtra to strike a comparison between both the leaders and the potential they had for serving the people. “Devendra Fadnavis gave up his post very easily for the larger good. There are many such examples like Venkaiah Naidu who was BJP National President and later worked as the Vice President of India because that was the need of the hour. We seldom care about our posts,” Shetty told The Perfect Voice.


Congress spokesperson Atul Londhe refused to call the election results as the people’s mandate. “This is not at all a Janata mandate. Despite Maharashtra struggling with so many basic social issues, how can BJP acquire such a huge mandate is the question. If a student copies and fails with just passing marks, it can go unnoticed, but if a student copies and bags the number one position, something is fishy. Why is the BJP scared of ballot papers?” he said.

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