The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance born out of political necessity rather than ideological congruence after the 2019 Assembly election, now finds itself at something of a crossroads despite its remarkable win in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election.
The unilateral move Uddhav Thackeray, leader of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), to project himself as the chief ministerial candidate for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections has sparked a political cold war within the coalition, particularly with the Congress. Thackeray’s move, ostensibly aimed at consolidating his base within the Sena and projecting an image of leadership after his ousting as chief minister in 2022, has ruffled feathers within the Congress.
Thackeray’s demands for a clear stance on the CM face seems to reflect his frustration with the MVA coalition’s current dynamics. In recent meetings with Congress and NCP leaders, he has pressed for a clear decision on who will lead the government if the MVA wins.
When the MVA was formed with the sole consideration of keeping the BJP at bay, the Congress was the third partner in the coalition, having lesser MLAs as compared to the undivided Shiv Sena and the NCP. However, vertical splits within the Shiv Sena and the NCP in 2022 and 2023 respectively, followed by the Congress’ stunning revival in Maharashtra - which saw the party win 13 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested on to emerge as the single-largest in the State – have changed equations within the coalition.
The party’s leadership, wary of being reduced to a mere junior partner, has voiced its displeasure, reminding Thackeray that such decisions ought to be made collectively within the MVA, not dictated unilaterally by any one leader.
Furthermore, Thackeray’s growing support among Muslims could potentially strain his relationship with the Congress. The Congress, traditionally seen as the primary representative of Muslim interests within the alliance, view Thackeray’s inroads into this voter base as an encroachment on its electoral turf. This could lead to heightening of tensions between the two parties as they jostle for dominance within the coalition, particularly in constituencies where minority voters play a decisive role. The Congress has historically relied on minority support as a cornerstone of its electoral strategy in Maharashtra.
However, after the split within the Sena following Eknath Shinde’s revolt, the minorities, electorally jaded after supporting parties like the Congress and the AIMIM in the past, now see Thackeray as an attractive alternative given that he has been aggressively taken on the BJP and PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
Uddhav’s increasing appeal to these demographics challenges the Congress’s position, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of political dynamics within the MVA as both parties seek to consolidate their influence ahead of the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election. Thackeray has been insistent that the coalition agree on a Chief Ministerial candidate prior to the elections, even if the name remains undisclosed to the public.
At a recent press conference, he made clear on the need to avoid the discord that he had experienced when in alliance with the BJP, where a lack of clear leadership and seat-sharing agreements had led the collapse of the long-standing Sena-BJP alliance. The Congress has remained resistant to Thackeray’s push. Congress leaders have even criticized Thackeray’s performance in the Lok Sabha election, pointing to his party’s ‘poor’ showing and the Sena (UBT)’s inability to transfer votes effectively to Congress-NCP undermines his position.
Of the three MVA parties, Thackeray’s Sena (UBT), despite contesting on the largest number of seats (21), had managed to secure only nine while Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) had the best strike rate – winning eight of the ten seats it contested on.
Tensions within the opposition coalition were rife even before the Lok Sabha. The claim over the Sangli seat, which saw the Congress and the Sena (UBT) nearly coming to blows, was microcosmic of the inherent schism within the MVA. The Thackeray group had unilaterally claimed the Sangli seat for itself despite it being a Congress bastion for 50 years, provoking intense resentment among the Congress cadre throughout western Maharashtra. Ultimately, Congress rebel Vishal Patil won the seat by trouncing political neophyte Chandrahar Patil, a wrestler fielded by the Sena (UBT).
Amid this brewing discord between Thackeray and the Congress, the 83-year-old Sharad Pawar, the architect of the MVA, has adopted a cautious stance. Known for his political acumen and ability to navigate Maharashtra’s complex political terrain, Pawar has refrained from openly endorsing Thackeray’s move. Instead, he has called for unity within the alliance, urging all parties to focus on their common goal of defeating the BJP in the upcoming election.
Thackeray’s insistence on a pre-election leadership decision and the Congress’s resistance appears to underscore the fragile nature of the MVA coalition as it gears up for the upcoming election.
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