The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), once a seemingly unassailable political force in Mumbai, is facing troubling signs of waning influence in the city. Recently, the BJP found itself bested by its former allies, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) faction, not only in high-profile legislative contests but now also in the domain of university politics. The recent clean sweep by the Aaditya Thackeray-led Yuva Sena in the University of Mumbai Senate elections - winning all ten seats - suggests that the BJP’s grip on Mumbai’s electoral landscape is loosening. It also raises questions about the party’s readiness for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election.
When it was in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the BJP had expanded its urban appeal across Mumbai while leveraging the Sena’s grassroots muscle. But since the dramatic split within the Shiv Sena in 2022 and the emergence of two rival factions — one led by Uddhav Thackeray and the other by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde (who aligned with the BJP) — the political calculus has altered. The BJP, which had previously counted on the Shiv Sena’s backing in Mumbai, now faces a formidable opponent in Uddhav’s faction.
The Yuva Sena’s success in the Senate polls, much more than just a victory in the field of student politics, is an ominous sign for the BJP’s urban strategy. The win comes on the heels of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s triumph in the Maharashtra Legislative Council elections earlier this year, where the party secured both the Mumbai Graduates and Mumbai Teachers constituencies, reflecting the diminishing appeal of the BJP even among its traditionally strong urban voter base. The BJP’s rout in 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai, where it managed to win only one of the three seats it contested in the city, has only underscored its vulnerability. This was in stark contrast to the 2019 general election in Mumbai city, when the BJP had won all three seats it fought on.
It seemed at the time that the party’s blend of Hindu nationalism and development promises resonated with the city’s middle class. However, by 2024, this support seems to have frayed. Internal divisions, the Sena split, and discontent with the BJP’s governance in Maharashtra appear to have undermined its urban appeal.
The Mumbai Senate election result is testimony to the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s capacity for resilience with the party’s youth wing emerging proving that it is able to rally support from a demographic crucial to the 2024 Assembly elections.
The question facing the BJP led by Devendra Fadnavis is whether it can arrest this decline before the state elections. Compounding problems for the BJP, its ally, CM Shinde’s Shiv Sena, has struggled to compete with the Thackeray brand’s enduring appeal in Mumbai.
If the BJP fails to reverse its trend of losing in Mumbai, the upcoming Assembly elections could see a further erosion of its influence in the city.
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