Myanmar, our neighbour with over 50 million people, is rich in natural resources and strategically located between China, India, and Thailand, giving it geopolitical significance. However, it has also faced decades of political unrest, ethnic tensions, and humanitarian crises.
Historical Background
Myanmar’s history is shaped by its colonial past and the challenges of a diverse nation navigating independence. Under British rule from the 19th century until 1948, the country—then called Burma—experienced significant economic and social changes. However, the divide-and-rule policies of the colonial administration exacerbated ethnic tensions that persist to this day.
After gaining independence, the nation faced immediate challenges, including internal conflicts among its numerous ethnic groups. In 1962, the military seized power, initiating decades of authoritarian rule. During this period, civil liberties were curtailed, and armed conflicts intensified between the central government and various ethnic groups seeking autonomy.
In 2010, Myanmar began a fragile transition toward democracy. The 2015 general elections brought hope for lasting civilian governance, with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party emerging victorious. Despite this, the military retained considerable power under the 2008 constitution, which guaranteed 25% of parliamentary seats and control over key ministries.
The democratic experiment was short-lived, lasting only about five years. By 2021, Myanmar’s political landscape changed dramatically once again.
Key Drivers of the Current Crisis
The crisis began in February 2021 when the military (Tatmadaw) staged a coup, citing electoral fraud in the 2020 elections. Civilian leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, were detained, and democratic institutions dissolved. The military’s justification faced widespread domestic and international scepticism.
In response, Myanmar’s people launched the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) with mass protests, labour strikes, and calls for civilian rule. Peaceful demonstrations faced severe crackdowns, resulting in violence, mass arrests, and civilian displacement.
Myanmar’s political turmoil is compounded by long-standing ethnic tensions. Home to over 135 ethnic groups, many have had strained relations with the central government. Armed groups from these communities have fought for autonomy or independence, particularly in border regions like Kachin, Shan, and Rakhine states.
Humanitarian Impact
The crisis has devastated ordinary citizens, displacing thousands fleeing conflict zones and military oppression. Refugee flows into neighbouring countries like Thailand, India, and Bangladesh have strained regional resources and heightened international concern.
Civilians bear the brunt of the violence. Human rights reports document widespread abuses, including arbitrary detentions, village attacks, and restricted humanitarian access. Relief efforts are often hindered by access and security issues, with food insecurity and a lack of medical aid becoming critical, especially in rural areas and displacement camps.
International Reactions
The global response combines condemnation, sanctions, and diplomacy. Western nations, including the U.S. and EU, have imposed targeted sanctions on military leaders and their business interests. The United Nations has called for dialogue and a ceasefire but faces enforcement challenges.
ASEAN has taken the lead in mediating the crisis, but its non-interference principle complicates a unified response. Neighbouring powers China and India, with strategic interests in Myanmar, tread cautiously, balancing geopolitical aims with calls for stability. China, Myanmar’s largest investor, prioritises stability to protect its projects, while India balances democratic values with countering Chinese influence and securing its northeastern border.
Current Situation and Outlook
Myanmar remains in turmoil, with territorial control divided. The military dominates urban centres like Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. At the same time, ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Force (PDF) influence rural and border areas, including parts of Kachin, Shan, and Karen states. These resistance groups control valuable assets such as jade mines, timber reserves, and rare earth hubs like Kanpaiti on the Chinese border, providing economic sustenance and strategic leverage. Armed clashes between the military and EAOs continue, alongside civilian resistance in both urban and rural areas.
The ongoing conflict has severely impacted Myanmar’s economy, with the World Bank projecting minimal growth and estimating it remains 10% smaller than pre-pandemic levels. The kyat’s significant depreciation has triggered hyperinflation and soaring commodity prices, with gold emerging as a key store of value amid currency instability. Trade disruptions from border closures and conflict have sharply reduced imports and exports, worsening shortages of essential goods.
The Path Ahead
Myanmar’s complex ethnic landscape and deep military-civilian mistrust complicate peace efforts. A sustainable solution requires addressing both the political crisis and long-standing ethnic grievances fuelling decades of unrest.
Though the immediate outlook appears grim, hope lies in sustained international attention and pressure for inclusive dialogue. Myanmar’s future hinges on balancing diverse community aspirations with the need for stable, democratic governance. This crisis highlights the intricate challenges multiethnic nations face during political transitions. Marked by human suffering, political deadlock, and struggles for autonomy, Myanmar’s plight demands not only humanitarian aid but ongoing global efforts to foster dialogue and reconciliation.
(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)
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