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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Indecision Kills Personal Branding

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Indecision Kills

In a world that celebrates clarity and confidence, hesitancy is a silent yet powerful force that can diminish your personal brand. When people dwell in the realms of “I’m not sure” or “maybe,” they unknowingly project uncertainty and unreliability—traits that can undermine the foundation of a strong personal brand. Your ability to make decisions and stand firm on them is not just a reflection of your leadership but also a testament to your personal brand’s strength.


Every interaction we have leaves an impression. Be it a professional email, a networking event, or a casual conversation, these moments contribute to how others perceive us. When you continuously oscillate between indecision and vague responses, it sends a message that you lack confidence or direction. In business, where trust and reliability are paramount, this can become a significant roadblock.


Imagine a scenario where a client approaches two service providers with the same inquiry. The first one confidently outlines a plan, clearly stating the next steps, while the second hesitates, replying with, “I’m not sure; let me think about it.” Even if both have the same expertise, the client is more likely to gravitate toward the first provider. Confidence fosters trust, and trust is the bedrock of all successful relationships—professional or personal.


Indecision can often stem from the fear of making mistakes or being judged. While this is natural, it’s important to remember that perfection is an illusion. The act of making a decision, even if it turns out to be less than ideal, demonstrates courage, responsibility, and accountability. These are the traits that elevate a personal brand, distinguishing you in a crowded and competitive world.


Being decisive doesn’t mean being impulsive or reckless. It means gathering information, weighing options, and then committing to a choice with confidence. In personal branding, this is particularly crucial because every decision you make—how you respond to challenges, present yourself, or communicate with others—forms part of the narrative others associate with you.


Hesitation and indecision don’t only affect how others perceive you; they also impact how you view yourself. Constantly second-guessing yourself leads to self-doubt, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more uncertain you are, the more others will mirror that uncertainty, creating a cycle that can be hard to break.


One way to counter this is by setting clear priorities and aligning your decisions with them. For instance, if your personal brand is centred around being a thought leader in your industry, your choices should reflect expertise and foresight. Even in moments of ambiguity, acknowledging the uncertainty while showing a proactive approach—such as saying, “I’ll find out and get back to you”—conveys both honesty and determination.


During my recent trip to Australia, I was reminded of how decisiveness shapes impressions. Whether interacting with global clients or navigating unfamiliar professional terrains, I realized that certainty in communication was key to building trust and rapport. This was particularly evident when representing my personal brand on international platforms. A clear, confident tone opened doors and strengthened relationships that would have otherwise remained distant.


The next time you find yourself leaning on phrases like “I’m not sure” or “maybe,” pause and ask yourself: Is this hesitation necessary? Sometimes, it’s about silencing the inner critic and choosing to act decisively. Even if the outcome isn’t perfect, the act of making a choice positions you as someone who is reliable, proactive, and worth trusting.


Your personal brand isn’t defined by the absence of mistakes but by how you handle them and move forward. Decisiveness isn’t just about making choices—it’s about owning them. And in a world that often feels uncertain, those who lead with clarity and conviction stand out.


Make your decisions a reflection of your confidence, and watch as your personal brand strengthens, opening doors you never imagined.

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(The author is a personal branding expert. She has clients from 14+countries. Views personal.)

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