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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm...

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”

Indecision Kills Personal Branding

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Indecision Kills

In a world that celebrates clarity and confidence, hesitancy is a silent yet powerful force that can diminish your personal brand. When people dwell in the realms of “I’m not sure” or “maybe,” they unknowingly project uncertainty and unreliability—traits that can undermine the foundation of a strong personal brand. Your ability to make decisions and stand firm on them is not just a reflection of your leadership but also a testament to your personal brand’s strength.


Every interaction we have leaves an impression. Be it a professional email, a networking event, or a casual conversation, these moments contribute to how others perceive us. When you continuously oscillate between indecision and vague responses, it sends a message that you lack confidence or direction. In business, where trust and reliability are paramount, this can become a significant roadblock.


Imagine a scenario where a client approaches two service providers with the same inquiry. The first one confidently outlines a plan, clearly stating the next steps, while the second hesitates, replying with, “I’m not sure; let me think about it.” Even if both have the same expertise, the client is more likely to gravitate toward the first provider. Confidence fosters trust, and trust is the bedrock of all successful relationships—professional or personal.


Indecision can often stem from the fear of making mistakes or being judged. While this is natural, it’s important to remember that perfection is an illusion. The act of making a decision, even if it turns out to be less than ideal, demonstrates courage, responsibility, and accountability. These are the traits that elevate a personal brand, distinguishing you in a crowded and competitive world.


Being decisive doesn’t mean being impulsive or reckless. It means gathering information, weighing options, and then committing to a choice with confidence. In personal branding, this is particularly crucial because every decision you make—how you respond to challenges, present yourself, or communicate with others—forms part of the narrative others associate with you.


Hesitation and indecision don’t only affect how others perceive you; they also impact how you view yourself. Constantly second-guessing yourself leads to self-doubt, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more uncertain you are, the more others will mirror that uncertainty, creating a cycle that can be hard to break.


One way to counter this is by setting clear priorities and aligning your decisions with them. For instance, if your personal brand is centred around being a thought leader in your industry, your choices should reflect expertise and foresight. Even in moments of ambiguity, acknowledging the uncertainty while showing a proactive approach—such as saying, “I’ll find out and get back to you”—conveys both honesty and determination.


During my recent trip to Australia, I was reminded of how decisiveness shapes impressions. Whether interacting with global clients or navigating unfamiliar professional terrains, I realized that certainty in communication was key to building trust and rapport. This was particularly evident when representing my personal brand on international platforms. A clear, confident tone opened doors and strengthened relationships that would have otherwise remained distant.


The next time you find yourself leaning on phrases like “I’m not sure” or “maybe,” pause and ask yourself: Is this hesitation necessary? Sometimes, it’s about silencing the inner critic and choosing to act decisively. Even if the outcome isn’t perfect, the act of making a choice positions you as someone who is reliable, proactive, and worth trusting.


Your personal brand isn’t defined by the absence of mistakes but by how you handle them and move forward. Decisiveness isn’t just about making choices—it’s about owning them. And in a world that often feels uncertain, those who lead with clarity and conviction stand out.


Make your decisions a reflection of your confidence, and watch as your personal brand strengthens, opening doors you never imagined.

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(The author is a personal branding expert. She has clients from 14+countries. Views personal.)

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