The world is deeply concerned about peace, especially with two ongoing conflicts–the Russia-Ukraine war and the one between Israel and its foes. Amidst the ongoing tensions, India has good relations with all the conflicting nations, like Russia, Ukraine, the US, Europe, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, and the entire Arab world. Recently, there have been rumours of an amicable truce with China, which could open the floodgates for mutual trade. As a result, India is being welcomed by all.
President Vladimir Putin’s recent remarks, where he stated that Russia would consider an attack from a non-nuclear state that was backed by a nuclear-armed one to be a “joint attack,” have raised eyebrows. Does this imply a threat of using nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine? On Wednesday, September 25, Putin said his government was considering changing the rules and preconditions around which Russia would use its nuclear arsenal. In response to this threat, Zelensky is expected to receive an additional supply of lethal weapons that could pose a threat to the heart of Russia. US President Joe Biden is in favour of continuing aid to Ukraine as a last effort to support it during the final months of his tenure. A lot depends on the upcoming elections in the US. If Kamla Harris gets elected, this policy will continue, and if Trump wins, the aid to Ukraine will immediately stop. Zelensky visited the US, frantically and desperately trying to extract maximum help from Trump. On the other hand, Putin may be manoeuvring behind the scenes to ensure Trump’s success.
What’s interesting to see is how India is reacting to all of this. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is emerging as a mediator and peace broker. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General and reiterated India’s support for an early resolution of the conflict and the restoration of peace and stability in the region. A losing side (Ukraine) cannot dictate terms for the truce; hence, Ukraine is left with no option but to compromise unless there is a miracle that has the potential to create a turnaround of events. PM Modi advised Zelensky that war cannot be stopped on his terms, but it can only stop if he is ready for a ‘resolution.’
What potential solutions could Ukraine adopt?
Pledging not to join NATO
Concede Crimea, occupied by Russia at the beginning of this war, as part of Russia.
Not to have a defence treaty with the US or any of the NATO countries.
Zelensky should resign, and a new head must be appointed on Russia’s recommendation.
Accepting some or all of these terms could effectively make Ukraine a subordinate nation to Russia. Modi, along with the active participation of External Affairs Minister S. Jayshankar, could play a crucial role in devising a solution acceptable to both sides while safeguarding the dignity and pride of each–a highly challenging task.
Many global leaders, from China’s Xi Jinping to Erdogan of Turkey, have attempted a similar strategy, but nothing has come to fruition yet. These two leaders are arms suppliers to Russia, and Ukraine finds it impossible to accept any suggestions from such mediators.
India continues to have trade relations with Russia despite US sanctions and provides humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but does not export arms to either one of them. This makes Modi acceptable to both sides.
Israel-Lebanon conflict
In the second major conflict involving Israel and its adversaries, Netanyahu is conducting airstrikes against Lebanon and is now escalating ground operations. Lebanon is aware that the only power that can deter Israel is the US. However, the US continues to supply shipments of arms and ammunition to Israel. Multiple nations, including India, have appealed for a ceasefire. However, Netanyahu is in no mood to arrive at a peaceful solution.
Meanwhile, the US has made little effort to restrain Netanyahu. Anticipating a large-scale war, many nations have issued advisories to their nationals. India too has issued three such advisories in the last 48 hours for its citizens to leave Lebanon. Similar to the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war, India shares good relations with Israel and the Arab world. In many Arab countries, Modi has been conferred with the highest civilian award. In the UN general assembly, India abstained whenever a resolution condemning Israel was moved and kept supporting the cause of Palestine to exist.
Having said that, much depends on the fulcrum of the US presidential election, which is around the corner.
Comments