With barely a month to go for the Maharashtra Assembly election, the Mahayuti coalition, particularly the BJP, is grappling with a confluence of challenges that threaten its electoral prospects in north Maharashtra.
The perennial rivalry between veteran politician Eknath Khadse on the one hand, and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and his confidante, Girish Mahajan on the other, is emblematic of these problems.
Following Khadse’s departure from the BJP in 2020 to join Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), he has publicly declared that his return to the BJP is now a “closed option” due to what he describes as systematic humiliation at the hands of state party leaders.
Despite campaigning for his daughter-in-law Raksha Khadse during the Lok Sabha election, Khadse’s homecoming has been thwarted by internal opposition from Fadnavis and state minister Girish Mahajan.
The rivalry between Khadse and Mahajan epitomizes the personal stakes involved in the coming struggle. Both hail from Jalgaon, and their competition for dominance in the region has long been a source of ongoing strife. With daughter Rohini, who head the women’s wing in the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP), actively seeking a ticket for the Muktainagar assembly seat, the familial stakes further complicate the narrative even as Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule’s recent comments attempt to position Khadse as a BJP loyalist.
The BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year serves as a sobering reminder of their challenges in north Maharashtra. The MVA secured six of the eight seats in a region that had previously backed the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena for over a decade. The Mahayuti coalition had managed to hold onto only two seats in Jalgaon district.
The discontent among tribal voters poses another significant hurdle as this demographic has leaned toward the opposition MVA during the recent Lok Sabha election, driven by grievances linked to the Shinde government’s plans to grant tribal status to the Dhangar community - a move perceived as jeopardizing their reservation entitlements.
In a bid to mitigate discontent, the Mahayuti has drastically adjusted its stance on agricultural policies, particularly concerning onion farmers whose discontentment was a major cause in the ruling coalition’s poor show in this region during the Lok Sabha polls. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s public apology to farmers during a rally in Nashik in August reflects an awareness of the critical importance of rural support in the forthcoming elections.
The ruling Shiv Sena under CM Shinde has its own set of challenges here. A cohort of prominent Shiv Sena leaders - Gulabrao Patil, Dada Bhuse and Suhas Kande – who had joined Shinde in his 2022 revolt, will now have to prove their loyalty to their Chief minister and their mettle in securing the region’s critical votes for the Mahayuti.
Gulabrao Patil, the guardian minister for Jalgaon, has projected optimism, asserting that the Mahayuti alliance will make significant gains, claiming it can secure at least 35 seats in the region.
As the Mahayuti warily navigate north Maharashtra’s complex electoral waters, the interplay of community dynamics, policy adjustments and past grievances will prove whether Patil can make good of his boast.
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