Investors have amassed significant wealth through investing in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in India. In 2024, 70 IPOs were launched, with 56 of them delivering positive gains on their initial listing. Among these, Vibhor Steel Tubes, which began accepting subscriptions in February 2024, achieved the highest listing gain at 195 per cent. BLS E-services and Bajaj Housing Finance were the next two IPOs to see substantial gains, with returns of 171 per cent and 135 per cent, respectively. Investors can approach IPOs from two angles: focusing on listing gains or on long-term investment. Let's explore the key factors that contribute to a successful IPO investment strategy.
For Listing Gains
1. Consider the size of the issue. Small IPOs with issues below 2000 crores tend to offer better listing gains.
2. Monitor the Grey Market Premium (GMP). GMP should consistently exceed 30% before the IPO.
3. GMP should either remain stable or increase, and it should not decrease leading up to the IPO's closing date.
4. Even if the goal is to focus on listing gains, it's important to review the company's financials. Financial indicators such as profit growth, Return on Equity, and Price to Earnings ratio are crucial to avoid investing in low-quality IPOs.
5. If the company shows long-term growth potential, it's advisable to hold off on selling shares.
For Long-Term Investment
1. Established companies like LIC, Zomato, Ola Electric, and Hyundai Motors have not met market expectations, often due to the size of their initial offerings. If the issue size exceeds $20 million, it's advisable to consider investing for long-term gains rather than just listing gains.
2. The valuation of the company is critical for long-term wealth creation through IPOs. The company should be profitable, and its price to earnings ratio should be below 25.
3. Occasionally, companies like Zomato, Swiggy, and Ola, which are currently unprofitable, but they have a potential for significant future growth. In such cases, it's important to be mentally prepared for a multi-year period of time correction. It's possible that returns may not be realized until the company becomes profitable.
4. Shares in this category are susceptible to significant price drops, potentially by 50 per cent to 70 per cent from their initial offering price. However, it's beneficial to buy these shares during these price drops. For instance, Zomato, listed at 116 rupees in July 2021, fell to 41 rupees by July 2022. Following this decline, the stock began to rise, currently trading at 248 rupees.
5. If a company is fundamentally strong but its valuation is high, it may consolidate over several years, requiring patience. An example is CDSL, which was listed in 2017, didn't deliver any returns for the next three years. However, from 2020 to 2024, the stock appreciated by over 10 times.
(The author has spoken to experts in the field for writing this piece.)
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