While the world was mostly focused on the US presidential election in the West, another major election happened on the eastern side of the globe. This unexpected general election in Japan also ended in an unexpected outcome for the ruling party.
Since 1955, Japan’s political landscape has been largely defined by the LDP’s dominance. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a major conservative and nationalist political party, was formed in 1955 as a merger of two conservative parties, the Liberal Party and the Japan Democratic Party. It has been in power almost continuously since its formation, except in 1993-94 and 2009-12.
The LDP supported Japan’s alliance with the USA and fostered close links between Japanese business and government, playing a significant role in the country’s economic miracle from the 1960s to the 1980s. Scandals and economic difficulties led to the LDP briefly losing power in 1993-94 and governing under a non-LDP prime minister from 1994 to 1996. Once again, the party achieved its stability in the 2000s but also had to face its worst-ever electoral result in the 2009 election. It regained control in a landslide victory in the 2012 election under Shinzo Abe, who is the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history.
Fumio Kishida became the Prime Minister after the last general election in 2021. But since then, he had also been caught in a series of political crises. Abe’s assassination led to heightened scrutiny against the allegations surrounding the Unification Church and its link to LDP. The close relationship between the party and the church caused a drop in the approval rating of the Kishida cabinet and anti-government protests.
A party-wide corruption scandal in late 2023 weakened Kishida’s government. On 14 August 2024, he announced his resignation as party president, sparking a heated leadership contest. Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba won on 27 September and soon declared an early election. Despite a year remaining in the parliamentary term, the lower house was dissolved on 9 October, with elections held on 27 October. The 465 seats of the House of Representatives of Japan are contested via parallel voting. Out of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party-list proportional representation.
Candidates from parties with a legal political party list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.
In the recent general election, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2009. Although the LDP is still the largest party, the coalition has failed to win the 233 seats needed for a majority, securing only 215. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) became the biggest winner in the election, gaining 52 seats and jumping from 96 seats in the previous election to 148 seats.
From 2006 to 2012, Japan’s leadership was marked by frequent turnover, with six prime ministers over six years. This “revolving door” era created uncertainty, weakened Japan’s negotiating stance, and limited its ability to maintain consistent foreign policies. The latest election result brings back the question of whether Japan is heading toward a similar period of instability. Such a development would have significant implications for Japan’s global relationships. In a geopolitical environment where steadfast alliances are crucial, regular leadership changes can disrupt decision-making and create a perception of unreliability.
While Japan has been increasingly assertive in security matters over the past decade, particularly in response to China’s growing influence, the rise of opposition voices could lead to a more cautious and diplomatic approach. This shift may particularly impact Japan’s role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), an alliance formed between the USA, India, Australia, and Japan to maintain regional stability and counterbalance China’s influence.
Additionally, the progress made in improving relations with South Korea during the last few years may also face challenges if Japan enters a period of political instability.
Japan faces a rapidly ageing population, a declining birth rate, and rising economic inequality. These issues require steady, decisive governance because even the most innovative policies may struggle to gain traction without the stability of a unified ruling party.
Japan’s latest election result reflects that the nation is at a crossroads, grappling with complex issues that require steady, strategic governance. If Japan enters another era of “revolving door” leadership, it may not just undermine its own goals but also affect the stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region.
(The author is an expert in foreign affairs. Views personal.)
コメント