As Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) prepares for its first major electoral exercise since the abrogation of Article 370, the 2024 election will not merely be a contest for power but a referendum on the future of democracy in the Valley.
The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not just for the people of J&K but for the broader narrative of Indian democracy. The election will reveal whether the Narendra Modi-led NDA’s policies have succeeded in winning the hearts and minds of the populace or whether the quest for peace and stability remains elusive.
From Insurgency to Article 370
Once a princely state, Kashmir has long been a flashpoint in South Asia, with its roots of conflict stretching back to the partition of British India in 1947. The region is a battleground for competing nationalisms, with India and Pakistan claiming it but only having control over certain areas.
The insurgency that began here in the late 1980s, fuelled by a combination of local discontent and external support, led to widespread violence, human rights abuses, and economic stagnation.
On August 5, 2019, the BJP-led central government under PM Modi took the momentous decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution which had granted J & K special autonomy. This move was presented as a means to fully integrate J&K into the Indian Union, with promises of economic development, improved security, and political stability. The abrogation was met with mixed reactions—celebrated by many across India but met with scepticism and opposition by parties like the Congress and some in J&K and beyond.
As the ruling party, the BJP is expected to leverage its position of power and the narrative of development and security post-Article 370 abrogation. The party’s strategy in the coming election will likely focus on showcasing the infrastructure projects initiated in the region and the promise of economic growth. However, the BJP must contend with the lingering discontent over the abrogation and how it was executed.
A dominant force in J&K politics for decades, the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC), led by the Abdullah family, is poised to be a formidable challenger. The party has consistently opposed the abrogation of Article 370, framing it as an assault on the region’s identity and autonomy. The NC’s campaign is expected to revolve around promises to restore the region’s special status and push back against what it perceives as central government overreach.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), another key player led by Mehbooba Mufti, has also been vocal in its opposition to the scrapping of Article 370. The PDP is likely to focus on addressing the alienation felt by many in the region. However, the party has faced internal challenges and a shrinking support base since its controversial alliance with the BJP earlier, which may affect its performance. Apni Party, a relatively new entrant to the political landscape founded by Altaf Bukhari, positions itself as a centrist force advocating for pragmatic politics and development. Distancing itself from the polarising debates on Article 370, the party focuses instead on issues like job creation, infrastructure, and good governance. Its success will depend on appealing to voters tired of traditional politics and yearning for tangible progress.
Then there is the Congress party, which has struggled to maintain a strong foothold in J&K in recent years. The party’s stance on Article 370 has been ambiguous, with leaders airing conflicting views.
The Stakes
The region’s political landscape has been profoundly altered by the events of 2019, and the election will test whether the promises of development and integration made by the central government resonate with the electorate.
While violence has decreased, the spectre of terrorism remains, with sporadic attacks continuing to disrupt the fragile peace. There has been an upsurge in militancy in Jammu since the beginning of the year. In January 2024, terrorists gunned down seven civilians in Dhangri village, and Captain Deepak Singh was killed in last week’s encounter in Doda. The election will naturally take place under tight security, with the government keen to project an image of normalcy and progress. Yet, deep-seated mistrust between the local population and the central government, the legacy of violence, and the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding Kashmir all pose significant hurdles. Nevertheless, the 2024 election has the potential to be a transformative moment, offering a chance for J & K to redefine its future in a way that aligns with the aspirations of its people while ensuring long-term peace and stability in the region.
In this most delicate of regions, the ballot box will speak volumes about the past, present, and future of a land that has long been at the heart of South Asia’s geopolitical chessboard.
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