For the first time, Satta Bazaar or the Bookies Market are confused and at a loss, unable to predict which party or candidate will win the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra. Mohan (name changed) one of the regulars in the circuit, shares some titbits circulating through the grapevine about how, for the very first time in many years, the entire Satta Bazaar is struggling to come up with reliable numbers on who will win or lose these upcoming elections. The reasons he says are not one but multiple. The first is the lack of trust and clarity on the seat-sharing formula amongst both the ruling Maha Yuti and the opposition Maha Vikash Aghadi coalition. The second reason is the possible coming together of multiple fronts that may include Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), Raju Shetty’s Swabhimaani Paksha, Sambhaji Raje Bhonsale’s Swarajya Sanghatana, and Bachhu Kadu’s Prahar Janshakti Party, as well as the Maharashtra Navanirman Sena (MNS) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and not to mention the many candidates who may contest as Independents in case they fail to get a ticket. Adding to this complex mix is the possible entry of the Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who may decide to take a political plunge and contest the elections, potentially changing the entire equation.
“This is nothing less than a political circus of sorts,“ says Mohan, noting that he and his associates have analysed that while the smaller parties may come together to form a possible third and fourth front, it cannot be ruled out that most parties may prefer to go solo at the last minute, contesting all 288 seats. The victory numbers according to the ‘market’ is the MNS, which is expected to contest 250 seats and might win at least 5-6 seats of them. And the combination of VBA along with others may fetch them at least 55 seats. Similarly, AIMIM, which may contest 50 seats, stands to win at least in five prominent Muslim-dominated areas of Maharashtra, while the possible number of victorious Independents may exceed 20.
The third area that the bookies have reportedly been monitoring, he claims, is the shortage of strong candidates. Aside from ageing veterans, not a single political party has a strong and capable second or third line of leadership ready to contest these elections confidently. Instead, we see a large number of family members of established leaders―many who lack substantial political experience and understanding of grassroots politics as well. Additionally, you have contractors-cum-real-estate agents turned wannabe politicians who lack vision and are jumping on the election bandwagon, hoping to pay their way through to become the next big thing in Maharashtra.
“No one has any idea who to bet on or who will form the next government in Maharashtra. There are no good candidates this time around. Voters are tired. We think the voter turnout may be less this time, and if that happens, you can expect candidates whom you have never even heard of getting elected on a smaller number of votes, and that is quite worrying for everyone,” he says. Well, let’s wait and watch for sure!
(The writer is a journalist based in Mumbai. Views personal.)
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