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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Marathwada’s Soybean Squeeze

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

For the Shinde-led Mahayuti government, the soybean crisis in Marathwada should serve as a wake-up call as campaigning intensifies ahead of the crucial Assembly election.

In the drought-prone Marathwada region, soybean, a crucial kharif (monsoon) staple, has faced a serious blow this year as a deadly combination of erratic (and unusually heavy) rainfall and soil degradation has led to dwindling yields for farmers already steeped in debt. The crisis has not only deepened rural distress but also dented the political credibility of the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti government in the recently concluded 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Farmers’ frustration, particularly over the low prices and inadequate support, was reflected in the electoral results. Discontent was not limited to soybean farmers but extended to those growing onions and other crops similarly affected by the erratic weather. The opposition parties capitalized on this anger, contributing to the ruling coalition’s losses in crucial constituencies.

Soybean cultivation is central to Marathwada’s agricultural economy with approximately 60% of the region’s cultivable land dedicated to it. However, this year, the area under cultivation fell sharply by 15%, while the yield per hectare has plummeted by nearly 20% compared to previous years.

Discontent among the rural electorate translated into a significant loss of votes for the Mahayuti coalition in the Lok Sabha election, which had counted on Marathwada as a stronghold. Many farmers switched their allegiance to opposition parties, particularly the Congress and the NCP, viewing the ruling government as ineffective in mitigating the crisis.

While promises of crop insurance and subsidies are being made, the delayed rollout of relief measures is aggravating the situation. Farmers are reporting delayed compensation under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), India’s crop insurance scheme, which failed to provide timely payouts. To compound the issue, local cooperatives responsible for distributing government aid are being accused of corruption and inefficiency, thereby eroding trust among farmers.

To stem the erosion of its rural voter base, the Shinde government must take decisive action. Strengthening the PMFBY is a critical first step. Insurance payouts need to be streamlined and simplified, ensuring that claims are processed within a few weeks rather than months. The scheme also needs to account for pest attacks and erratic rainfall more accurately, as these are increasingly frequent due to climate change. Enhancing the precision of satellite-based yield assessments would ensure that more farmers receive timely compensation.

Additionally, the government should consider targeted subsidies for soybean growers, particularly for pest-resistant seeds and organic pesticides. A concerted push towards water conservation, particularly through promoting drip irrigation, could help mitigate the impact of future droughts. The state’s ‘Jalyukt Shivar’ campaign, launched in 2015 to boost irrigation in drought-hit regions, could be revitalized, but with greater accountability to ensure funds are utilized effectively.

The state’s past experiments with price stabilization funds, such as the Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board’s attempt to guarantee minimum prices for soybeans, also offer a lesson. While well-intentioned, these initiatives were hampered by poor implementation and market manipulation by intermediaries.

For the Mahayuti government, immediate corrective measures like providing pest-resistant seeds, and reinvigorating irrigation schemes are essential not only to revive the fortunes of the state’s farmers but also to secure the government’s rural support base. Without these, the agrarian distress that continues to plague Maharashtra risks becoming a persistent political liability, as history has repeatedly shown.

(The writer is a farmer and resident of Latur district; views personal)

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