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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Unshackled yet Vulnerable

Eknath Shinde’s high stakes pivot in the post-Ajit era Mumbai: The swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister has optically restored the Mahayuti’s "tripod" structure, but for Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena faction, the ground reality has shifted seismically. The sudden exit of Ajit Pawar—often seen as the "counterweight" in the alliance—has fundamentally rewritten Shinde’s survival equation. For the last two years, Shinde operated in a high-pressure "sandwich" between Devendra...

Unshackled yet Vulnerable

Eknath Shinde’s high stakes pivot in the post-Ajit era Mumbai: The swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister has optically restored the Mahayuti’s "tripod" structure, but for Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena faction, the ground reality has shifted seismically. The sudden exit of Ajit Pawar—often seen as the "counterweight" in the alliance—has fundamentally rewritten Shinde’s survival equation. For the last two years, Shinde operated in a high-pressure "sandwich" between Devendra Fadnavis’s strategic command and Ajit Pawar’s administrative dominance. With the latter gone, Shinde is no longer just the "other" Deputy CM; he is now the operational anchor of the government, a shift that brings both immense opportunity and existential risk. Sunetra Pawar’s sudden elevation as Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister after Ajit Pawar’s tragic death has also unsettled other Shiv Sena leaders, who publicly welcomed the move but privately expressed surprise and concern. The development reshapes the Mahayuti alliance, with Eknath Shinde caught between asserting his mass appeal and managing BJP’s growing dominance. Third Wheel Until last week, Eknath Shinde often found his administrative influence curtailed by Ajit Pawar’s aggressive style. Ajit "Dada" controlled the bureaucracy and the purse strings, often leaving Shinde’s MLAs complaining about stalled files and delayed funds. How the new reality would unfold is not yet clear. With Sunetra Pawar being a political novice inducted primarily for "sympathy" and "legacy" management, Shinde is now the sole experienced administrator alongside Fadnavis. The "administrative friction" that plagued Shinde’s faction is gone. In cabinet meetings and operational governance, Shinde’s voice will likely carry significantly more weight, as he is no longer competing for airtime with a heavyweight like Ajit Pawar. Finance Dilemma The decision by Chief Minister Fadnavis to retain the Finance and Planning portfolio—rather than handing it to Sunetra Pawar—is the single most critical development for the Shiv Sena. The good news is that Shinde’s MLAs will no longer have to beg an NCP Finance Minister for development funds—a major grievance that had threatened internal revolts in the Sena camp. However, it can also turn out to be the bad news, since financial power will be completely centralized within the BJP now. Previously, Shinde could subtly play the BJP and NCP against each other to extract resources. Now, he faces a monolithic BJP command center. If Fadnavis tightens the purse strings, Shinde has no "second door" to knock on. The BMC Bargaining Chip The immediate effects of Shinde’s new fears were seen in Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and other Municipal Corporations in the MMR, where insteady of bargaining for a larger share of power, the Shiv Sena under Shinde appeared to be content with whatever it got from the BJP and quietly accepting it. This was very unlikely of their track record till now and contrary to the party insiders who were very aggressive till last week sending out signals that Shinde would bargain strongly for the demands like Mayoral post in Mumbai to assert the ‘rights of Marathi Manoos’.

Marathwada’s Soybean Squeeze

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

For the Shinde-led Mahayuti government, the soybean crisis in Marathwada should serve as a wake-up call as campaigning intensifies ahead of the crucial Assembly election.

In the drought-prone Marathwada region, soybean, a crucial kharif (monsoon) staple, has faced a serious blow this year as a deadly combination of erratic (and unusually heavy) rainfall and soil degradation has led to dwindling yields for farmers already steeped in debt. The crisis has not only deepened rural distress but also dented the political credibility of the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti government in the recently concluded 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Farmers’ frustration, particularly over the low prices and inadequate support, was reflected in the electoral results. Discontent was not limited to soybean farmers but extended to those growing onions and other crops similarly affected by the erratic weather. The opposition parties capitalized on this anger, contributing to the ruling coalition’s losses in crucial constituencies.

Soybean cultivation is central to Marathwada’s agricultural economy with approximately 60% of the region’s cultivable land dedicated to it. However, this year, the area under cultivation fell sharply by 15%, while the yield per hectare has plummeted by nearly 20% compared to previous years.

Discontent among the rural electorate translated into a significant loss of votes for the Mahayuti coalition in the Lok Sabha election, which had counted on Marathwada as a stronghold. Many farmers switched their allegiance to opposition parties, particularly the Congress and the NCP, viewing the ruling government as ineffective in mitigating the crisis.

While promises of crop insurance and subsidies are being made, the delayed rollout of relief measures is aggravating the situation. Farmers are reporting delayed compensation under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), India’s crop insurance scheme, which failed to provide timely payouts. To compound the issue, local cooperatives responsible for distributing government aid are being accused of corruption and inefficiency, thereby eroding trust among farmers.

To stem the erosion of its rural voter base, the Shinde government must take decisive action. Strengthening the PMFBY is a critical first step. Insurance payouts need to be streamlined and simplified, ensuring that claims are processed within a few weeks rather than months. The scheme also needs to account for pest attacks and erratic rainfall more accurately, as these are increasingly frequent due to climate change. Enhancing the precision of satellite-based yield assessments would ensure that more farmers receive timely compensation.

Additionally, the government should consider targeted subsidies for soybean growers, particularly for pest-resistant seeds and organic pesticides. A concerted push towards water conservation, particularly through promoting drip irrigation, could help mitigate the impact of future droughts. The state’s ‘Jalyukt Shivar’ campaign, launched in 2015 to boost irrigation in drought-hit regions, could be revitalized, but with greater accountability to ensure funds are utilized effectively.

The state’s past experiments with price stabilization funds, such as the Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board’s attempt to guarantee minimum prices for soybeans, also offer a lesson. While well-intentioned, these initiatives were hampered by poor implementation and market manipulation by intermediaries.

For the Mahayuti government, immediate corrective measures like providing pest-resistant seeds, and reinvigorating irrigation schemes are essential not only to revive the fortunes of the state’s farmers but also to secure the government’s rural support base. Without these, the agrarian distress that continues to plague Maharashtra risks becoming a persistent political liability, as history has repeatedly shown.

(The writer is a farmer and resident of Latur district; views personal)

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