Nepali coalition politics is a classic example of “Prisoner’s Dilemma”. In the past 18 years, the country has encountered regime change over 16 times! None of the coalition so far could overcome favouritism, budget fights or petty politics. The leaders’ long political careers failed to gather steady political relations and skills. The political backstabbing has always rocked the Nepali government. This year, within 4 months, the opportunistic Nepali politicians changed the coalition combination, twice! The intrinsic honesty that the Nepalese are known for, has gone extinct in Nepal’s politics.
In March 2024, PK Dahal’s Maoist Centre broke a year-long alliance with SB Deuba’s Nepali Congress and joined hands with KPS Oli’s communist party! Soon within 2 months Oli ditched Dahal’s party and entered a coalition with Deuba’s Congress. The budget stand-off and a rift over the appointment of the Securities Board’s chairman are said to be the reasons for the said split. Yet another power-sharing deal collapsed due to personal agenda and petty politics! Now the poles-apart ideologies have agreed to lead the country on a rotational basis! An unprincipled political opportunism is at its peak!
Nepal’s communist regime has a long history with China. In the pretext of the 2015 Indian blockade, Nepal’s then Prime Minister KPS Oli approached China. Grabbing this golden opportunity, China dangled ‘the access to 7 Chinese ports’ carrot in front of Nepali communists! 8 years have elapsed, and the two states are yet to implement the protocol agreement for the said access! The Chinese dry ports and 6 dedicated transit points could not facilitate China - Nepal bilateral deals nor could it end Nepal’s dependency on Indian-trade! The Nepali importers of Chinese goods bring their shipments via India due to fickle Chinese policies. In the last decade, China has entered into many agreements with Nepal including Nepal’s energy and transport sector, the cross-border railways and transmission services. However, all these projects have suffered delays, cost overruns and quality concerns. They are plagued by mismanagement and corruption. The Nepalis criticise these Chinese projects for the environmental hazards and financial burden!
On the contrary, abiding by ‘the Neighborhood First policy’, India’s Modi government seems to be committed to supporting Nepal’s progress. PM Modi’s government funded a $45 million pipeline to ensure cheaper oil imports to Nepal. The 69-km pipeline was completed 15 months ahead of schedule. The Modi government also launched a broad-gauge passenger train service to Nepal and bore the construction cost of the tracks and stations. India is likely to start the construction of a $ 3.5 billion cross-border railway line connecting the Indian border town to the Nepali capital. The country has agreed to import up to 10,000 MW of power from Nepal in the next 10 years. This is the first year of the agreement and India has already imported 1,000 MW! ‘If you must win, you must make your partner country a winner too’ is the key element of India’s neighbourhood policy. Accordingly, India’s cross-border project initiatives target relevant needs and are implemented effectively and efficiently. On the other hand, Chinese loans are pushing countries to the verge of collapse. And yet the coalition politics of Nepal has often taken a pro-China stance; to prove her loyalties to China, Nepal turned a blind eye to Chinese infiltration and unilaterally claimed parts of Indian land! Could this policy-tilt be called Nepal’s ‘Balancing Act’? It is evident that this landlocked country is trying to gain economic benefits from the rivalry between India and China, but some experts contend otherwise! India’s open border policy ensures Nepali youth access to quality education, employment, and a better standard of living. Considering New India’s persistent commitment to Nepal’s development and stability, Nepal’s baseless territorial claims cannot be justified as Nepal’s diplomatic constraint or blamed on China’s hegemony!
The news stories claim that the current Oli - Deuba coalition is Pro-India! These stories suggest that after finalising the new alliance, Oli reached out to India; and he is keen on shedding his anti-India image in his 4th stint as a Prime Minister. PM Oli has in fact repeated his old tactic. In previous tenure as a Prime Minister, Oli wrote to PM Modi “I am eager to work together with Excellency and your government for the betterment of our two countries”! The news reports assert that Nepal’s new cabinet is pro-India as the top portfolios including Home, Foreign, Law, and Energy have been allocated to the Nepali Congress! Though the Nepali Congress is perceived to be a pro-India party, the fact remains that under Oli’s leadership all the political parties had ‘unanimously’ endorsed and revised Nepal’s new map claiming Indian territory!
We cannot ignore the fact that under PK Dahal’s leadership, Nepal continued ‘Surya Kiran’, the joint military exercise with India but the country’s bilateral military engagement with the Chinese army did not see daylight! PK Dahal also postponed signing the implementation plan of China’s massive infrastructural project. On the 25th of June this year, he justified this delay by subtly pointing to China’s debt-trap diplomacy. A week later KPS Oli pulled his support from Dahal’s government! In Nepal’s game of political musical chairs, China is jingling! Though Nepal is perceived to be China’s stepping stone to India, China is not hostile to the country. The expansionist China who invaded Tibet under her Five Fingers Policy, is friendly with Nepal as her covert strategy succeeded in spreading communism and gaining influence over Nepal’s government.
In a corrupt coalition government where, political ambitions are fuelling the unrest, the resurgence of pro-monarchy sentiment is not surprising! Nepalis, who once drove the King off the throne, are now campaigning to reinstate Him for development and stability! This domestic conflict is further ignited by external factors that eventually undermine peace and safety. The proportional representation system has completely failed in Nepal. Electoral reform is the only way for Nepal to forestall the risky external involvement and repetition of the collapse of regimes.
(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)
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