Pakistan and Russia are warming up bilateral ties. Credit goes to Indian authorities for beautifully maintaining the relationship between Washington and Moscow. India’s excellent relationship with two archrivals Russia and the US, has provided much-needed courage to Pakistani authorities to follow suit.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad in a bid to deepen economic ties and expand cooperation “across multiple sectors” as Moscow grapples with U.S. and EU economic sanctions over its war against Ukraine.
Overchuk’s visit comes after two days of meetings between John Bass, U.S. acting undersecretary of state for political affairs, and Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in Islamabad.
During a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart earlier this week in Islamabad, Dar revealed that discussions centred on expanding economic ties between the two countries. Islamabad is abuzz with the speculation that Russians are helping Pakistan to build a steel mill. If true, it is going to be an excellent step in the revival of Moscow-Islamabad ties.
Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Russia reached an unprecedented $1 billion last year. The countries are committed to expanding trade ties by addressing logistical and related issues. Officials familiar with the development in the Pakistan-Russia bilateral relationship are optimistic that the two sides can enhance the volume of bilateral trade from one billion US dollars to $5 billion in a few years. In fact, India’s bid to maintain an excellent relationship with arch-rivals Russia and the US has given Pakistan much confidence to follow suit. However, it is not an easy task for Islamabad to follow the Indian path. Islamabad may lose its biggest economic partner like the US if it goes ahead to develop ties with Russia.
According to officials familiar with the development, Pakistan and Russia are expanding ties in many fields, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases. However, sanctions against Russia restrict cooperation between the two countries. Can Pakistan still go forward to enhance bilateral ties with Russia? It’s a million-dollar question.
Pakistan views Russia as an important player in West, South, and Central Asia. Authorities in Islamabad aim to work with Moscow toward peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, it will not be an easy task for Islamabad, as Washington can be a silent spectator. Pakistan may face the wrath of going ahead with Russian plans in Afghanistan.
Also, Pakistan’s army media wing said in a statement on Wednesday that Russia’s Overchuk spoke with General Syed Asim Munir, chief of the army staff (COAS), in Rawalpindi.
Analysts say the Russian deputy prime minister’s visit and the expansion of cooperation show Moscow is expanding its influence in the region.
“In my view, a vacuum has emerged after the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, and Russia is positioning itself to fill that void. China is also making efforts in this direction. As a result, Pakistan is working under this policy framework to improve its relations with regional countries, including Russia,” Professor Manzoor Afridi, a Pakistani academic on international relations, told VOA.
Analysts on Pakistan’s foreign policy and geopolitics believe that the US may not react until warming ties in the Russia-Pakistan bilateral relationship focus primarily on enhancing trade, strengthening diplomatic relations, and developing infrastructure, particularly in the energy sector. However, the United States may react sharply if Pakistan-Russia ties go beyond that threshold. The US has restricted certain aspects of Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, while tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated. In this context, Pakistan’s relationship with Russia holds significance.
Pakistan received its first shipment of Russian liquefied petroleum gas in 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif discussed the possibility of liquefied natural gas supplies earlier in July on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit at Astana, Kazakhstan.
Pakistan’s bid to warm its ties with Washington is a welcome step. However, Islamabad has to pay a heavy price in case of cosying up with Russia. It may have to lose an economic partner like the US. Can Pakistan afford to lose a partner like the US? It’s a million-dollar question.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. Views personal.)
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