Political Realignment

As Maharashtra’s Assembly elections inch ever closer, the political landscape is undergoing rapid shifts. The Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP), led by Mahadev Jankar, has formally exited the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti alliance, delivering a significant blow to the coalition. Jankar, an influential Dhangar leader who once vowed to dislodge the formidable Pawar clan from their stronghold in Baramati, is now positioning himself as an independent player, having announced his intent to field candidates in all 288 constituencies.

This development underscores the growing disgruntlement among smaller parties within the NDA, exemplified by Jankar’s grievances over seat allocation and perceived neglect. While he may be a ‘lesser’ ally for the BJP, Jankar’s influence among the Dhangar community in western Maharashtra cannot be underestimated. His bold challenge to NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule during the 2014 Lok Sabha contest in Baramati saw Ms. Sule winning narrowly, but the outcome showcased Jankar’s potential to disrupt entrenched political hierarchies.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha election this year, NCP (SP) patriarch Sharad Pawar had attempted to woo parties like Jankar’s Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) to discomfiture the Mahayuti. Pawar senior has offered Mr. Jankar the chance to contest the Madha Lok Sabha seat which the latter had cordially turned down. But the offer was indicative of the fact that Jankar, hitherto a sworn political nemesis of Sharad Pawar, was now more than willing to bury the hatchet.

It will be a supreme irony if Jankar, who had once vowed to destroy Baramati, now ends up on Sharad Pawar’s side, aiding the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) directly or indirectly while denting the BJP and the Mahayuti.

The BJP has long courted the Dhangar community, initially luring its leaders like Jankar with promises of reservation ahead of the 2014 Assembly election. The BJP had even inducted Jankar into the state cabinet and commissioned the Tata Institute of Social Sciences to study the community’s socio-economic conditions. In 2017, then Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis sought to rename Solapur University after Punyashlok Ahilyabai Holkar, the 18th-century Maratha queen revered by the Dhangars.

Despite these placatory gestures, the Dhangar community remains in the Vimukta Jati and Nomadic Tribes (VJNT) category and has now intensified its demands for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, particularly in light of the Maratha quota agitation, thus putting the Mahayuti in a fix. The BJP has already lost an erstwhile NDA constituent in form of Raju Shetti’s Swambhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS). Shetti, a prominent voice for farmers in the ‘sugar heartland’ in western Maharashtra, has oscillated between alliances and has now opted to fight independently. With the loss of key smaller partners, the upcoming election will be a tough test of the BJP’s ability to address regional identities and local issues independently.