With Maharashtra’s Assembly elections looming, a political shuffle is taking shape in Mumbai. At a high-profile meeting held in a five-star Mumbai hotel on Monday, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis reportedly held a closed-door discussion with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, reportedly over seat-sharing arrangements in key constituencies like Shivdi, Worli and Mahim.
Despite unconditionally backing the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha election, Raj had recently announced the MNS would contest the Assembly election on its own. However, there appears to be a tacit understanding that the Mahayuti parties, especially the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the BJP, would be strategically backing the MNS candidates in key Mumbai seats to defeat the rival Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, Raj’s estranged cousin.
Raj’s son, Amit Thackeray, is expected to make his political debut in Mahim, a constituency contested by MNS leader Nitin Sardesai in the past. One of Mahim’s neighbouring constituencies is Worli, where Uddhav’s son, Aaditya Thackeray, is expected to defend his seat. In September, Raj had held a rally in Worli, where he tried to rouse nativist sentiments by calling on the ‘sons of the soil’ to stand up for their fundamental rights.The rally had coincided with the unveiling of the MNS’s ‘Vision Worli’ a strategic move to ostensibly counter Aaditya Thackeray’s programme.
By supporting Raj indirectly, the Mahayuti hopes (as it always has) to use MNS as a tool to split the Marathi vote and weaken Uddhav’s Shiv Sena (UBT).
Despite the MNS not having a single MLA or MP across Maharashtra, the BJP has always hoped to make use of Raj’s still extant Marathi-speaking vote-bank not just in Mumbai, but in Thane and Nashik to challenge the Sena (UBT) in wake of Muslim, Christian and Dalit voters gravitating towards Uddhav Thackeray since the latter’s alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar.
The MNS’ twin debacles in the 2014 parliamentary and Assembly elections left the party in utter disarray, with the slide continuing through the 2017 civic election as well as the 2019 State and national elections. Following its rout in the 2019 Assembly election, an atrophied MNS had changed its ideological direction from its nativist stance by veering towards Hindutva politics.
The MNS’ about-turns have compounded its woes. In 2014, Raj endorsed Prime Minister Modi, only to campaign fervently against him in the 2019 general elections, aligning himself with the NCP. Ahead of the Lok Sabha, he returned to giving unconditional support to Modi by campaigning for the Mahayuti. His constant political oscillations have caused confusion within his ranks.
That said, for Shinde and the BJP, having a Thackeray on their side, even tacitly, offers a symbolic boost in their battle with Uddhav for the supremacy of Mumbai.
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