As November 20 draws ever closer, the electoral contests in the 11 Assembly segments in Solapur district promise to be fiercely fought ones.
The district has historically been a stronghold for both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA, notably the Congress and the NCP (SP).
Historically, Solapur has been a district in flux: in the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP secured four of the district’s 11 seats, and subsequently added another in the Pandharpur by-election when it managed to wrest that seat from the then undivided NCP.
In the aftermath of splits within the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Mahayuti now holds eight of the 11 seats, with the two independents veering towards the ruling coalition. Yet, despite a commanding presence that seems unassailable, recent trends in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the alliance lost both the Solapur and Madha constituencies, suggest that the battle for this region is far from a foregone conclusion.
The defection of key leaders and the rise of rebel candidates within both the Mahayuti and MVA camps has added byzantine intrigue to this electoral contest. A record eight rebel candidates have entered the fray, increasing the likelihood of fragmented votes and unpredictable outcomes, especially in constituencies where the margins of victory could be razor-thin. In a district where local feuds often overshadow broader ideological divides, the personal ambitions of these rebels could determine the fate of the election.
The fragmentation within the two major alliances is evident across several key constituencies. Nowhere is this starker than in Solapur City Central, a Congress stronghold, Praniti Shinde, daughter of veteran Congressman and former Union Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, is seeking re-election for a third term. The contest here has turned multi-cornered, with BJP’s Devendra Kothe, CPI(M)’s Narsayya Adam, and Congress’s own Chetan Narote competing alongside AIMIM’s Farooq Shabdi and a rebel NCP candidate, Taufique Shaikh.
The significant Muslim vote in the area, once a reliable source of support for the NCP, is now in danger of splitting, potentially reducing the chances of any single candidate achieving a decisive victory.
In Solapur City North, the BJP’s four-time MLA Vijaykumar Deshmukh faces a challenge from the NCP (SP)’s Mahesh Kothe, but the contest has become more unpredictable due to a rebellion within the BJP ranks. Former mayor Shobha Banshetti is contesting as an independent candidate, drawing support from the area’s significant Lingayat community, a group traditionally aligned with the BJP. The split in the BJP vote could be pivotal, given the area’s strong BJP presence in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
Solapur South, another key constituency, sees BJP’s Subhash Deshmukh defending his seat against Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Amar Patil, with Dharmaraj Kadadi, a prominent Lingayat leader from the NCP, running as an independent.
Factionalism has also affected the PWP bastion of Sangola, where Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) face off against each other in a contest that also involves the PWP’s Dr. Babasaheb Deshmukh. Similarly, the BJP’s Samadhan Awatade, Congress’s Bhagirath Bhalke, and NCP’s Anil Sawant are locked in a triangular battle in Pandharpur.
Amidst the political turmoil, voters in Solapur are increasingly focused on practical issues. The district, reliant on sugarcane farming, faces chronic water shortages. However, these concerns have been overshadowed by local feuds, ticket disputes, and alliance splits.
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