Amid shifting global tides, New Delhi is charting a course for dominance in the Indian Ocean.
In the vast and restless waters of the Indian Ocean, where centuries of commerce and conquest have played out, a new power dynamic is emerging. The recently concluded 8th Indian Ocean Conference in Muscat attended by representatives from 45 countries offered a glimpse into a changing order in which India is not just a participant but an architect.
If the Pacific is the domain of American hegemony and the Atlantic an arena of NATO solidarity, the Indian Ocean has been a fluid and contested space where emerging powers jostle for influence. India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has positioned itself as the central force in shaping the region’s future.
For centuries, the Indian Ocean has served as a lifeline of commerce, a channel through which global trade has ebbed and flowed. Today, the ocean is a security dilemma and, increasingly, a battleground for influence. India’s maritime diplomacy, particularly in the last decade, has been guided by a clear, if unstated, doctrine: to consolidate its role as the anchor of stability in the Indo-Pacific.
The Muscat summit underscored this aspiration. It was a striking contrast to the first summit in Singapore in 2016, which saw participation from just 36 nations.
The urgency of maritime collaboration has rarely been more apparent. From the escalation of Houthi attacks in the Suez Canal to the resurgence of Somali piracy, the waters are becoming increasingly perilous. The turbulence of global politics, be it in form of the American-Chinese tariff wars, Russia’s remapping of post-Cold War borders or the fragility of Middle Eastern regimes, has created ripples that are now reaching the shores of the Indian Ocean. As supply chains fragment and military tensions spill into sea lanes, India has sought to rally its neighbors into a cohesive bloc, capable of resisting external pressures and ensuring their own security.
At the center of this vision is External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, whose speech at the conference laid out India’s approach with precision. Maritime stability, he argued, cannot be achieved through reactive measures alone. What was needed was a concerted, action-oriented approach integrating economic partnerships, defence cooperation and a shared commitment to countering transnational threats. India’s message is that the Indo-Pacific’s security challenges cannot be addressed in silos. The problems of the South China Sea and the dilemmas of the Arabian Sea are interconnected. So, too, are the fortunes of the Global South, whose economic survival depends on an unimpeded flow of goods and energy across these waters.
Jaishankar’s speech was, in many ways, a reaffirmation of Modi’s vision of India as a ‘Vishwaguru’ - a global leader with both the moral authority and strategic heft to shape international order. His assertion that India is emerging as a ‘stable pole’ in a world of shifting alliances was not mere rhetoric. In recent years, India has demonstrated a growing willingness to act as the first responder to crises in the region. From humanitarian aid in Mozambique to economic relief packages for Sri Lanka, New Delhi has sought to reinforce its image as a benefactor, a protector and when necessary, an enforcer.
The strategic implications of this maritime push are profound. By deepening its engagements with Indian Ocean nations, India is not only safeguarding its own security but also counterbalancing the growing Chinese footprint in the region. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has left several of India’s neighbors ensnared in debt, with strategic ports like Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan increasingly falling under Chinese influence. India, through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), is offering an alternative non-predatory vision of connectivity. The question is whether India’s economic and military resources can match its geopolitical ambitions?
The vastness of the Indian Ocean makes surveillance and maritime domain awareness an uphill task. While India has strengthened its naval capabilities and bolstered partnerships with countries like France, the United States and Australia, it still faces critical gaps in capacity. Monitoring exclusive economic zones, ensuring the security of undersea cables, and responding to asymmetric threats like piracy and state-sponsored maritime militias require a level of coordination that is still in its infancy.
Smaller nations in the Indian Ocean may welcome India’s involvement but remain wary of undue influence. The principle of ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region) championed by Modi, is a diplomatic tightrope. The moment India is perceived as too overbearing, its vision of an inclusive maritime order could crumble.
The joint statement issued at the close of the Muscat summit signals the start of a new chapter in Indian Ocean cooperation. But summits and declarations are only as effective as the actions that follow them. For India, the coming years will be a test of its ability to convert diplomatic momentum into tangible results. The new horizons of maritime collaboration are within sight. Whether India can truly navigate these waters as the region’s lodestar remains an open question. One thing is certain: the Indian Ocean is a chessboard of power, and India is determined to be its grandmaster.
(The author is a researcher and expert in foreign affairs. Views personal.)
Commenti