With Russia out, will Syria’s Tartus Port become a battleground for global rivals, reshaping regional power dynamics?
Russia has lost a key base in Syria with the termination of a 2019 contract for managing Tartus Port, which hosted its sole overseas naval facility. The Tartus base had evolved from a modest Soviet-era support point into a key hub for Russian naval operations. The port’s strategic significance dates back to 1971, when the Soviet Union established a naval support facility under an agreement with Syria. This move was part of Cold War rivalries, with the USSR backing Syria against Israel, a US ally, and securing access to the Mediterranean to counter American naval dominance.
During the Soviet era, Tartus functioned primarily as a logistical and maintenance hub rather than a full-fledged naval base. It provided essential support for Soviet warships patrolling the region and played a key role in cementing Soviet-Syrian military ties.
After the USSR collapsed in 1991, Russia’s naval power and global military presence diminished significantly. The Tartus facility was then downgraded to a material-technical support point, with minimal Russian military presence throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. During that period, the base was used only sporadically for refuelling and maintenance.
With the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, various international actors started supporting opposition groups, and Russia also saw an opportunity to reclaim its influence. Russian President Vladimir Putin established a 16-vessel Mediterranean task force in May 2013, designating Tartus as the base.
In 2015, Russia launched a full-scale military intervention in Syria, deploying air and naval forces to support Assad’s government. The Tartus Naval facility became a critical logistics hub for Russian operations, facilitating arms shipments, troop movements, and missile strikes against anti-government forces.
Russia and Syria signed a 49-year lease agreement in 2017, effectively granting Russia control over the base until at least 2066. This deal transformed Tartus into a comprehensive naval base. Under this agreement, Russia was permitted to expand the facility, allowing up to 11 Russian warships, including nuclear-powered vessels, to be stationed there.
The Tartus naval base has been strategically significant for several reasons. Russia used Tartus to monitor NATO activities, effectively countering NATO influence in the region.
The base also served as a platform for power projection in the Middle East, allowing Russia to influence regional conflicts and support its allies. Furthermore, Tartus ensured Russian naval access to key maritime trade routes, securing important energy corridors. It also enabled Russia to sustain long-range military operations without relying on Black Sea ports or distant bases.
Perhaps most importantly, Tartus was Russia’s only warm-water port with direct Mediterranean access. Post-2022, amid tighter Western sanctions and naval restrictions, it became an even more crucial logistics hub, supporting Russian naval operations and presence.
On the other hand, the militarisation of Tartus was a concern for the NATO countries, who saw it as part of Russia’s broader strategy to expand its influence in the Mediterranean and challenge Western naval dominance.
The situation changed dramatically when Assad, a key Russian ally, fled to Moscow in November 2024. Soon Russia also started withdrawing its navy assets from the Tartus base. Eventually, the new Syrian government cancelled the investment agreement with the Russian company Stroytransgaz, which managed this base.
After Russia’s withdrawal from Tartus, both the US and China might seek to establish a presence there, given their ongoing competition for global influence and the strategic location of the Tartus port. China has been expanding its military footprint abroad, highlighted by the establishment of its first overseas base in Djibouti in 2017. It has also constructed artificial islands and deployed military assets in the South China Sea. On the other hand, the US also maintains a network of overseas bases to uphold its global military presence. The proximity of US and Chinese bases in Djibouti has already led to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the competitive nature of their global strategies.
However, at this time, it’s hard to predict which way the US might go. Given President Trump’s recent foreign policy initiatives, such as asserting control over the Panama Canal and expressing interest in acquiring Greenland, it is plausible that his administration might also consider establishing a presence at the Tartus naval base. But at the same time, this also appears to contrast with the new US administration’s previous stance on reducing US military commitments overseas.
The termination of Russia’s Tartus lease reshapes Middle Eastern geopolitics, weakening its Mediterranean foothold and inviting global powers to compete for influence. The United States and China seek expansion of their military and economic presence and may view this as an opportunity to establish their positions in Syria. The evolving dynamics at Tartus could thus become a focal point in the broader competition between these nations, with implications for regional stability and international relations.
(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)
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